A new study says leisure travel will be “robust” for at least the next decade – including forecasted outbound spending and growth from Canada by the year 2033. And while that’s good news for the travel industry, the Oxford Tourism Economics study portends changes in global patterns and holiday destinations that are already starting to take shape now.
“Leisure travel was the driving force for the industry in the 10 years prior to the pandemic and it is expected to remain the most dynamic travel segment over the next 10 years,” states the report, which was produced exclusively for the recent World Travel Market in London. “It is set to continue outperforming wider consumer spending as individuals prioritize travel experiences…”
While the growth will be led by “striking population growth” in India, as well as more ‘travel class’ travellers in China and Indonesia, traditional markets are expected to grow significantly as well, with 72% growth in the Canadian market.
So, where will the world be travelling in 2033?
Based on visitor spending and growth*, the top 10 destinations a decade from now will be:
- China
- US
- Spain
- Thailand
- Turkey
- France
- Italy
- India
- Saudi Arabia
- Japan
(*The report states: “This ranking differs in terms of visits, but (for example) the higher length of stay and spend per visit in China will ensure it receives the highest value of leisure spending.”
As for China’s top ranking, which the study says it will recover in 2024, the report says the country will “benefit from the increased connectivity added to facilitate rapidly growing outbound demand. This capacity can also serve international inbound travel, while new capacity and attractions developed for the domestic market will also attract foreign visitors.”
Meanwhile, the US – already Canada’s top international outbound market – “will remain an important destination and will outpace some European destinations as affordability improves with a return to more typical, weaker dollar exchange rates.”
Canada is projected to benefit from 71% inbound spending and growth by 2033.
As for the types of holidays that travellers of the near future will be taking, the survey says, “Macroeconomic conditions, demographic dynamics, and government action will mould tourism patterns in the years ahead and reshape new leisure travel preferences. The behaviour of modern, evolving consumers and the responses of industry will also play an important role in determining the direction of travel in the longer term.”
Factors to be considered, it continues, will include an aging population, climate change, the lingering attractiveness of domestic travel/ staycations) and non-urban destinations forged during the pandemic, as well as a quest by travellers for authentic experiences.
Finally, the report wonders, “Where does the ‘old new’ stop and the ‘truly new’ begin? Does this mean a boon in the future for unimagined and currently out-of-grasp experiences such as space travel and deep-sea exploration? It remains to be seen how much technological advancements will allow the industry to move into new verticals. (But) one thing is clear, demand for unique, unparalleled experiences is unlikely to ebb.”