With global barriers to travel starting to go up again in some places, the World Travel and Tourism Council is predicting a “worst case scenario” in which 197 million jobs in the global tourism sector may be lost due to the collapse of travel during the coronavirus pandemic.

The London-based non-profit WTTC says it forecast such “staggering” losses two months ago and blames an “international failure to implement proper coordination to combat the pandemic.”

Specifically, the WTTC says its economic modelling warned of such an outcome if barriers to global travel, such as quarantine measures and blanket travel restrictions, were to remain in place.

While some travel bans have been removed, many others remain, with new restrictions likely to come into force to tackle the continuing threat posed by COVID-19 and possible second spikes.

The WTTC points to travel “chaos” last week in Spain when the UK government changed its travel advice to re-impose a 14-day quarantine period for people arriving back in the UK. This countrywide “travel ban” came despite parts of Spain, such as Andalucia, the Balearics and Canaries having a lower COVID-19 infection rate than the UK.

And such a confusing patchwork of bans, quarantines and uncoordinated international testing and tracing measures have deterred many people from travelling at all with the peak summer 2020 travel season “all but being wiped out,” laments the WTTC.

“It’s heartbreaking to see our worst fears for the global travel and tourism sector coming true,” says WTTC president and CEO Gloria Guevara. “The jobs and livelihoods of millions of people who work throughout the sector are disappearing by the day, despite our warning this could happen.”

Nevertheless, there’s still time for a turnaround, says Guevara, who implores governments and the tourism industry to “act together now as one and replace ineffective quarantines with comprehensive rapid testing, a worldwide accepted standard of contact tracing and widespread face mask usage. Employing the latest technology, combined with mass adoption of protective face coverings, will help restore confidence to the traveller.

“Governments around the world must align their policies and work hand in hand with the private sector to revive travel and tourism,” she continues. “We strongly believe that by working as one we can beat COVID-19 and return to safe travels with world-class standards of hygiene to travellers and regenerate the jobs and livelihoods of the 300 million people who worked in the sector before COVID-19. That is a much more, cost effective and efficient option which will alleviate the terrible economic impact of mass unemployment.”

WTTC recommendations include:

• Quarantining only people who test positive

• Removing and replacing travel bans and 14-day quarantine measures with ‘air corridors’ to stimulate the travel and tourism sector and the wider economy

• Adoption of global health and safety protocols, such as the ‘Safe Travels’ initiative launched by WTTC, to provide assurance to travellers and those working within the sector.

WTTC says it believes the implementation of a rapid test and trace strategy is a critical step to help contain the spread of the virus, while still allowing people to travel responsibly and encouraging greater and sustained collaboration between the public and private sectors to ensure a standardized, global approach to the crisis.

According to WTTC’s 2020 Economic Impact Report, during 2019, travel and tourism was responsible for one in 10 jobs (330 million in total), making a 10.3% contribution to global GDP and generating one in four of all new jobs.