A prominent Canadian tour operator executive once famously opined to an audience of travel advisors at a fall product launch, “We’re hoping for a very cold and snowy winter. But not so cold and snowy that people can’t make it to the airport to leave.” With this in mind, we’ve called on The Weather Network’s forecast for this winter, asking what we all need to know: “Will Canada’s winter weather be wild?”
Noting the presence of El Niño conditions this year, which are associated with warmer-than-normal ocean water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that impact the global jet stream pattern, TWN says the winter forecast for Canada does suggest a mild start to the season, with a delay in the arrival of consistent cold weather for most Canadians.
However, January and February, it adds, could bring a dramatic pattern change to parts of Canada that would challenge our perception of El Niño winters.
“The current El Niño event and ocean water temperatures across the Pacific Ocean are giving us a pattern that is unlike anything that we have ever seen before,” says Chris Scott, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Network. “Therefore, we believe that the upcoming season will deliver some curveballs that will set this winter apart from typical El Niño winters.
“While mild temperatures should continue to dominate across western Canada, it appears to be a different story for the eastern half of Canada where winter is expected to make more than just a token appearance.”
Here’s a more detailed look from TWN at what we can expect across the country during the upcoming winter season:
British Columbia
A typical El Niño is expected across the province with mild Pacific air dominating through most of the season and fewer-than-normal arctic outbreaks. A drier-than-normal winter is also expected across most of the province. The south coast region should see below normal snowfall and more sunshine than is typical during winter. However, precipitation totals should still end up near normal due to a few periods when the storm track will shift north into the region and bring Pineapple Express events with a risk for excessive rainfall.
Prairies
A mild winter is expected across the region, especially across Alberta and into Saskatchewan, and a few spots which are accustomed to seeing a white Christmas are at risk to miss out this year. Below-normal snowfall is also expected across western and central parts of the region. However, January and February should still deliver periods of more traditional winter weather, especially across Manitoba where snow totals are expected to be near normal.
Ontario and Quebec
A mild start to winter is expected, with less snow than normal during the weeks leading up to the holidays. However, a pattern change is expected as we get deeper into the season with periods of much colder weather expected. Below-normal snowfall is expected for most of the region as the storm track will often be well south of the region. However, if the storm track shifts far enough north at times, then southern parts of the region will still see near-normal snow totals.
Atlantic Canada
A changeable, but overall near-normal, winter is expected across the region. Periods of mild weather should be offset by periods of cold weather, resulting in near-normal temperatures overall. The active storm track across the southern and eastern US will take many storms out to sea rather directly into Atlantic Canada. However, enough moisture-laden systems are expected to impact the region to bring near or slightly above normal snow and rain totals to the region.
Northern Canada
Milder-than-normal temperatures are expected across most of the region, but a cold start to winter across Alaska should spread into the Yukon at times. As we get deeper into winter, we are watching the potential for a piece of the polar vortex to sit over northern Hudson Bay and Baffin Island, which would bring a period of colder than normal temperatures to those areas.