Step by step, many countries, especially in Europe and North America, are easing their COVID-19 restrictions amid hopes the omicron wave may have passed its peak – from late-night partying at clubs to elbow-to-elbow seating in movie theatres, and going without masks in public.
The early moves to relax precautions, based on declining or flattening case counts in recent days, represent what could be another turning point in a nearly two-year pandemic that has been full of them.
The extraordinarily contagious omicron has fuelled more cases worldwide over the past 10 weeks – 90 million – than were seen during all of 2020, the outbreak’s first full year. But the World Health Organization (WHO) last week said some countries can now consider carefully relaxing the rules if they have high immunity rates, their health care systems are strong, and the epidemiological trends are going in the right direction.
Many governments are taking the message to heart and betting that the pandemic is ebbing.
“Rest assured that the worst days are behind us,” claimed Fahrettin Koca, the health minister of Turkey, even as the number of daily infections in the country topped 100,000 on Feb. 1, the highest on record.
The most pronounced pullbacks in restrictions are in Europe, for many months the world’s epicentre of the pandemic, as well as in South Africa – where omicron was first announced publicly – and the United States. In Britain and the US, as in South Africa before them, COVID-19 cases skyrocketed at first but are now coming down rapidly.
Canada
Similar sentiment is taking hold amongst politicians and health officials in Canada, as well – among them Ontario’s chief medical officer Dr. Kieran Moore, who stated that the province’s public health measures, including vaccine passports, should be re-assessed in the coming weeks.
In Ontario, a first round of eased restrictions began on Jan. 29, while phase 2 of Quebec’s re-opening plan kicked in Monday.
In BC, the province’s health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry said she hoped restrictions could begin to loosen by Family Day (Feb. 21), and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says his government will announce this week a date to end Alberta’s COVID-19 vaccine passport, as well as a phased approach to ending almost all COVID-19 health restrictions by the end of the month, provided the pressure on hospitals continues to decline.
Nationally, Canada’s chief medical officer Dr. Theresa Tam supported ongoing restrictions on Friday, but acknowledged, “We need to begin to plan forwards for when this particular wave recedes and be ready.”
US
South of the border, infections plunged from an average of over 800,000 a day three weeks ago to 430,000 last week. (Numbers in Canada are more difficult to gauge as counting cases has essentially stopped).
In New York, where cases last week were averaging 4,200 cases a day, compared with 41,000 during the first week of January, the state’s governor is reviewing this week whether to keep the state’s mask mandate, reflecting decrease in cases and hospitalizations in a city that had been an early omicron hotspot.
Europe
In Europe, England, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, and several Nordic countries have taken steps to end or loosen their restrictions. In some places, like Norway and Denmark, the easing comes even though case counts are still hovering near their highs.
In late January, England ended almost all domestic restrictions. Masks aren’t required in public, vaccine passes are no longer needed to get into public venues, and the work-from-home order has been lifted. One lingering condition: Those who test positive still have to isolate.
Norway lifted its ban on serving alcohol after 11 p.m. and the cap on private gatherings of no more than 10 people. People can sit elbow-to-elbow again at events with fixed seating, and sports events can take place as they did before the pandemic.
“Now it’s time for us to take back our everyday life,” Norwegian Health Minister Ingvild Kjerkol said as the restrictions lifted on Feb. 2. “Tonight, we scrap most measures so we can be closer to living a normal life.”
In Denmark, which took the lead among European Union members by scrapping most restrictions on Feb. 2, many people in Copenhagen were still wearing masks on the streets and in stores a day later.
On the same day, Switzerland scrapped work-at-home and quarantine requirements and announced plans for an easing of other restrictions in coming weeks, saying: “Despite record high infection figures, hospitals have not been overburdened and the occupancy of intensive care units has fallen further. There are increasing signs that the acute crisis will soon be over and the endemic phase could begin.”
Late last week, Spain announced that its outdoor mask mandate would be scrapped, though it remains for indoor public spaces.
As throughout the pandemic, many countries are going their own way: Italy has tightened its health pass requirements during the omicron surge. As of Jan. 31, it began requiring at least a negative test within the previous 48 hours to enter banks and post offices, and anyone over 50 who hasn’t been vaccinated risks a 100-euro ($150) fine.
In Austria, a law requiring most adults to get vaccinated against COVID-19 is ready to take effect, and Greece has similarly ordered fines for people 60 and over who refuse to get vaccinated.
In Germany, curbs on private gatherings and requirements for people to show proof of vaccination or recovery to enter nonessential stores remain in place.
“I think that the moment we have the feeling that we can loosen responsibly, federal and state governments will take that step,” German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said. “But at the moment, it is still a bit premature.”
Asia and the Pan Pacific
Other continents are being even more cautious. Some of the world’s highest vaccination rates are in Asia, and its leaders are holding to stricter lockdown measures or even tightening them for now.
The Pacific island country of Tonga went into lockdown Feb. 2 after discovering infections in two port workers helping to distribute aid following a volcanic eruption and tsunami. The country had been virus-free.
And while New Zealand said it will ease its strict border controls, freeing vaccinating New Zealanders from having to stay in quarantine hotels run by the military, the unvaccinated still must quarantine and most foreigners will still have to wait until October to visit quarantine-free.
China, even as it hosts the Beijing Winter Olympics, is sticking to its zero-COVID policy, imposing strict lockdowns and quarantines quickly when any cases are detected, mandating masks on public transportation, and requiring people to show “green” status on a health app to enter most restaurants and stores.
Africa
South Africa last week announced that it has exited the fourth wave, saying scientific studies show immunity has hit 60% to 80%. Masks are still mandatory, but a curfew has been lifted and schools are required to fully – not just partially – open for the first time since March 2020.
Dr. Atiya Mosam of the Public Health Association of South Africa said such steps are a “practical move towards acknowledging that COVID-19 is here to stay, even though we might have a milder strain.”
“We are acknowledging how transmission occurs, while basically balancing people’s need to live their lives,” Mosam said.
WHO
However, while omicron has proved less likely to cause severe illness than the delta variant, experts are warning people against underestimating it or letting their guard down against the possibility of new, more dangerous mutant varieties.
“We are concerned that a narrative has taken hold in some countries that because of vaccines – and because of omicron’s high transmissibility and lower severity – preventing transmission is no longer possible and no longer necessary,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Gheybreysus says. “Nothing could be further from the truth.”
WHO’s emergencies chief, Dr. Michael Ryan, warned that political pressure could lead some countries to open back up too soon – and “that will result in unnecessary transmission, unnecessary severe disease and unnecessary death.”
So far, the WHO reports that more than 370 million cases and over 5.6 million deaths linked to COVID-19 have been reported worldwide.