Airfares are forecast to see modest increases across most regions globally in 2025 as airline capacity continues to rise, according to American Express Global Business Travel’s (Amex GBT) latest Air Monitor 2025. The report anticipates that, after a period of sharp fluctuations, airfare prices are starting to stabilize globally, marking a shift from the more volatile pricing patterns of previous years. However, the underlying cost of air travel is likely to remain high.

In 2025, business-class fares within North America are expected to rise by 2.7% year over year, while economy-class fares will increase by 2.8%, according to the report.

Meanwhile, inter-regional fares are projected to see mixed trends:

• North and South America: The report predicts that business-class fares between North and South America will decrease by 1%, while economy fares are expected to fall by 8%.
• North America and Europe: Fares between these two regions are expected to increase modestly, with business-class fares rising by 1.5% and economy-class fares increasing by 0.8%.
• North America and Asia: Business class fares are forecast to jump 2.2%, while economy class will stay the same (-0.1%).

Amex GBT identified several key factors influencing airfare pricing, including the growing trend of dynamic pricing, which allows airlines to adjust their fares based on a variety of market conditions.

The integration of New Distribution Capability (NDC) is expected to impact corporate travel buyers as they navigate fare negotiations. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, which could affect fuel costs, and increased operating expenses, such as higher labour costs from new contracts and environmental surcharges, are all contributing to the upward pressure on prices.

Australia is projected to see the highest fare increases for intra-regional travel, with business-class fares up 7.8% and economy-class fares up 13.7% year over year.

“In 2025, businesses will be faced with a new reality – even though price rises are leveling off and capacity has returned, fares remain high,” says Gerardo Tejado, SVP Professional Services, Amex GBT. “Corporates should expect tough negotiating stances from airlines, particularly as carriers evolve their distribution models. Business travel buyers will need to be strategic – for example, around loyalty and program performance data – to get value in this environment.”

AI

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in air travel pricing is another key development highlighted in the report. Airlines are increasingly leveraging AI to sharpen their revenue management and retailing capabilities. The report references how AI technologies are reshaping air travel revenue strategies, allowing airlines to better respond to market shifts and consumer behaviour.

As airlines continue to innovate in their pricing strategies, the use of AI is expected to become an integral part of revenue management, making it even more important for corporate travel buyers to leverage program performance data and loyalty to navigate this new pricing environment effectively.

Region-specific projections

The Air Monitor 2025 report provides detailed projections for various regions, highlighting the anticipated changes in both business-class and economy-class fares.

• Europe will see business-class fares increase by 1.2%, and economy-class fares are expected to rise by 2.8%.
• South America: In South America, business-class fares are projected to rise slightly by 0.3%, while economy-class fares are expected to increase by a higher 3.6%.
• Asia: The Asia-Pacific region stands out as the only area where business-class fares are forecast to decrease—by 1.5%—while economy-class fares are projected to rise by 2.3%.
• Australia: In contrast, Australia is expected to experience the highest fare increases, with business-class fares rising by 7.8% and economy-class fares increasing by 13.7% year over year. This significant jump can be attributed to a combination of high demand for air travel and limited capacity within the region.

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