While a US lawmaker who has made a political crusade out of getting the border with Canada reopened is urging President Joe Biden to “directly engage” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the matter, the country’s brand marketing organization says it is not expecting Canadians to visit in any measurable numbers until 2022.
In a recent update on international markets, predicated on determining which markets would likely be the first to return to the US as its vaccinations rise and the country “cautiously reopens” to travel, the organization said its data suggests that Canadians planning international trips would hover at between 10 and 13% per month for the rest of the year (with the exception of September at 18%) into January and February, 2022, before surging to 28% by the end of March.
As if on cue, Prime Minister Trudeau stated Tuesday that three-quarters of Canadians will need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 before the Canada-US border can be reopened, tamping down any expectations that travel restrictions could be lifted soon.
The subdued return to travel for Canadians is “to be expected,” noted Brand USA director of consumer research Rosina Barbastefano, who points to such existing government-imposed travel restrictions, though she said there is optimism that the numbers will improve with the advancement of vaccine rollouts in both countries.
Barbestefano said Canada and Mexico still qualify for phase 1 of Brand USA’s marketing efforts, which includes participating in co-op campaigns with Canadian supplier partners, mainly due to proximity (neighbours) and familiarity with the destination.
She also acknowledges that the situation is fluid and could change quickly.
Brand USA cites three primary factors affecting Canadian general consumer sentiment when choosing where to travel (internationally): low number of cases in the destination, air passenger requirements, and having the COVID vaccine. Meanwhile, the most significant deterrents are the requirement to quarantine in destination and the requirement to submit to and pay for COVID tests before departure/returning flights.
In terms of personal considerations, data for Canadians suggests:
• 71% are seeking rest & relaxation
• 62% desire seeing unique attractions
• 58% want their children to be engaged in tailored activities
• 56% are feeling adventurous, and
• 55% aim to increase their knowledge and understand other cultures
While prominent figures such as Ontario premier Doug Ford are calling for Canada’s international borders to be sealed even tighter to prevent the spread of COVID-19 variants, several figures south of the border are advocating the opposite with respect to Canada.
The latest, New York Rep. Brian Higgins, wrote a letter late last week to President Biden claiming that last week’s decision by the US Centers for Disease Control to no longer require fully vaccinated Americans to wear face masks in virtually all situations, including indoors, is an “affirmation” of the power of the COVID-19 vaccines, and cause to widen the definition of essential travellers by the end of May, with an eye toward fully reopening the border by early July.
Higgins urged Biden to “directly engage” with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, stating in the letter: “Trends in vaccination and the most recent guidance from the CDC affirm that the time is right to do this safely and effectively.”
He added, “This decision underscores the minimal risk Americans will pose to Canadians when crossing the border to visit family and property.”
Indeed, the CDC’s announcement Thursday prompted a maskless Biden to acknowledge the occasion and declare: “I think it’s a great milestone and a great day.”
Nearly 60% American adults have received at least one dose of the vaccine, compared with just 5.5 per cent four months ago, he added.
Canada, for its part, is also making “steady progress” in its vaccination efforts with approximately 50% (depending on the index cited) of adults having received a first shot.
Higgins, who first wrote to Biden back in February to urge the president to get serious about drafting a plan to reopen the border, also suggested the US should share more of its vaccines with Canada.
Earlier last week, US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer joined Higgins in his cause.
“It is time to take the first steps towards reopening the northern border to non-essential travel,” he said, calling for a “staged and steady” plan that would be “based on science, data and common sense.”
Meanwhile, a consortium of Canadian business leaders has also taken up the cause, sending a similar letter early this week to the prime minister – a letter that happened to mention the same 75% threshold that Trudeau did.
“By midsummer, if not sooner, some three-quarters of Canadian adults will be at least partially vaccinated, and one in five will be fully vaccinated,” by which point restrictions ought to be eased, reads the letter, signed by the presidents of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters, among dozens of others.
Incidental travel between the two countries has been forbidden since the pandemic began raging in North America in March 2020, with only trade shipments and essential workers being allowed to cross.
The two countries have extended the restrictions on a monthly basis ever since, with the current extension set to expire May 21.