International tourist arrivals are expected to grow three to five percent in 2025 compared to 2024, according to UN Tourism. This after an estimated 1.4 billion tourists travelled internationally in 2024, indicating a virtual recovery (99%) of pre-pandemic levels.
International arrivals last year represented an increase of 11% over 2023, or 140 million more, with results driven by strong post-pandemic demand, robust performance from large source markets and the ongoing recovery of destinations in Asia and the Pacific.
According to the the latest World Tourism Barometer from UN Tourism, most destinations showed strong results in 2024, with a majority exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Available data for the first 10 to 12 months of 2024 shows several destinations reporting double-digit growth compared to 2019.
The Americas (213 million) recovered 97% of pre-pandemic arrivals (-3% over 2019), with the Caribbean and Central America already exceeding 2019 levels. Compared to 2023, the region saw 7% growth.
The full recovery of international tourism in 2024 is also reflected in the performance of other industry indicators. According to the UN Tourism Tracker, both international air capacity and air traffic virtually recovered pre-pandemic levels through October 2024 (IATA). Global occupancy rates for accommodation reached 66% in November, slightly below 69% in November 2023 (based on STR data).
UN Tourism Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “In 2024, global tourism completed its recovery from the pandemic and, in many places, tourist arrivals and specially earnings are already higher than in 2019. Growth is expected to continue throughout 2025, driven by strong demand contributing to the socio-economic development of both mature and emerging destinations.”
While the outlook for 2025 is positive, tourism experts say economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant risks. More than half of UN Tracker respondents point to high transport and accommodation costs and other economic factors such as volatile oil prices, as the main challenges international tourism will face in 2025. Against this backdrop, tourists are expected to continue to seek value for money.
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