Travel restrictions, slow virus containment, and low consumer confidence will continue to dim the prospects of a full recovery of international tourism until the third quarter of 2021, says the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

However, about 20% of UNWTO’s Panel of Experts suggest the rebound could occur only in 2022.

Other barriers to recovery, says the panel, include a lack of coordinated response among countries to ensure harmonized protocols and coordinated restrictions, as well as the deteriorating economic environment.

The UNTWO’s latest data reports a 70% decline in international arrivals for the first eight months of 2020, but according to the latest figures posted in the organization’s World Tourism Barometer, international arrivals plunged 81% in July and 79% in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year and the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer season.

The drop until August represents 700 million fewer arrivals compared to the same period in 2019 – more than eight times the loss experienced on the back of the 2009 global economic and financial crisis.

Moreover, following its gradual reopening of international borders, recovery has been short-lived, as travel restrictions and advisories are reintroduced amid an increase in contagions.

The result is that demand for travel remains largely subdued due to the ongoing uncertainty about the pandemic and low confidence. Based on the latest trends, UNWTO expects an overall drop close to 70% for the whole of 2020.

“This unprecedented decline is having dramatic social and economic consequences, and puts millions of jobs and businesses at risk,” warns UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili. “This underlines the urgent need to safely restart tourism, in a timely and coordinated manner.”