The number of air passengers will likely reach 5.2 billion in 2025, topping the 5 billion mark for the first time ever, predicts IATA in its year-end financial outlook for the global airline industry. The nearly seven percent rise compared to this year will also see net profits for the airline industry reach US$36.6 billion.

IATA director general Willie Walsh noted that the growth means that “aviation connectivity will be creating and supporting jobs across the global economy. The most obvious are the hospitality and retail sectors which will gear up to meet the needs of a growing number of customers.”

He added, “In 2025, industry revenues will exceed $1 trillion for the first time. It’s also important to put that into perspective. A trillion dollars is a lot – almost 1% of the global economy. That makes airlines a strategically important industry. But remember that airlines carry $940 billion in costs, not to mention interest and taxes. They retain a net profit margin of just 3.6%. Put another way, the buffer between profit and loss, even in the good year that we are expecting of 2025, is just $7 per passenger…”

Driving profits in 2025 are expected to be lower jet fuel prices and efficiency gains, but IATA says challenges and uncertainties may include unresolved supply chain issues, rising costs (including labour), continuing (or new) global conflicts, the incoming Trump administration, and any rise in oil prices.

IATA says that its recent public opinion polling confirms an optimistic outlook for passenger demand with  41% of surveyed travellers saying they expect to travel more, 53% at the same frequency, and only 5% expect to travel less.

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