While the current Ukrainian refugee crisis is a harsh reminder that conflict continues to displace people, most experts now agree that over the next 25 years the effects of climate change will become the most prevalent displacement driver worldwide. And according to British researchers Henley & Partners, citizens of countries boasting the strongest passports stand the highest chance of weathering the coming storm.

Conducted in partnership with Deep Knowledge Analytics, Henley’s research into the correlation between passport power and climate adaptation suggests that wealthy and developed nations with the greatest visa-free access stand to score highest when it comes to ability and readiness to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

The research compares the latest Henley Passport Index, which ranks the world’s passports according to the number of destinations their holders can access without a prior visa (Canada is ranked 7th of 185 destinations), with the University of Notre Dame’s ND-GAIN Country Index, which is composed of two key dimensions of climate adaptation: vulnerability and readiness.

As energy and climate change policy specialist Charles Phillips points out in the Henley Global Mobility Report 2022 Q2, “We can see close correlations between climate adaptation performance and international travel freedom, which can be explained by the fact that countries with better business environments, stronger and more stable institutions, and societies that assist in the realization of climate change investments are likely to be more economically prosperous and wealthy and therefore score more highly when it comes to travel freedom.

“These trends bring into stark reality the fact that your wealth, citizenship, and passport really do matter when it comes to climate risk.”

FutureMap founder Dr. Parag Khanna similarly observes in the report that the data shows predictable correlations in terms of wealth, visa-free access, and climate readiness.

“This is all the more reason to enable greater mobility for those who need it,” he says. “Planning for mass resettlement of human populations is a moral and practical obligation we need to act upon immediately. We will either learn to adapt proactively or we will be forced to act reactively. Ultimately people who choose to relocate will be better off than those trapped in survival mode.”

Dr. Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners, says holding more than one citizenship, with the range of personal access rights each guarantees, is the ultimate asset in a time of crisis. “The accident of one’s place of birth should not have to define one’s destiny. The benefit of a second or even third passport is often simply peace of mind and the knowledge that in the event of a catastrophe, relocation or repatriation is possible. Following the global pandemic, and now the war in Ukraine, this has become completely clear.”

Prof. Dr. Khalid Koser, Executive Director of the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund (GCERF) notes the effects of climate change will largely impact people from the Global South, who are already suffering the devastating effects of the climate crisis.

“Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity,” he says. “The risks are highest in the Global South – between 2010 and 2020, 15 times more people died from floods, droughts, and storms in very vulnerable regions including parts of Africa, South Asia, and Central and South America, than in other parts of the world.”

IATA VP of Environment and Sustainability Sebastian Mikosz says forecasts indicate that there will be demand for 10 billion passenger journeys in 2050 (up from around 4 billion pre-pandemic). “Much of this growth will come from passengers who have never had the opportunity to fly before: in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We owe it to this next generation of flyers to find sustainable solutions, so they can enjoy and benefit from air travel as we have done so far.”