At the beginning of March, just a few days before the dubious one-year anniversary of the declaration of the coronavirus pandemic by the World Health Organization, the prospects of Canadian travellers sadly seem to be no further ahead than they were on March 11, 2020.

Canadians are being advised not to go, they can hardly get there if they do, and returning home again is likely to be a giant, expensive pain in the posterior.

Of course – rightly or wrongly (depending on one’s point of view) – that is the point.

Canada’s Border Service Agency reported this week that international air arrivals fell to 106,000 people in the last two weeks of January and even further to 94,000 people in the first two weeks of February. By comparison, 170,000 people arrived in Canada by air between Dec. 28 and Jan. 10.

The steady drop has followed the coalescing of a seemingly seat-of-the-pants approach to discouraging international travel by Canadian governments that in its various stages has included some tough talk on travel, flight bans, and an ever-evolving suite of testing and quarantine measures.

Certainly, there have been continuous suggestions throughout the pandemic to avoid non-essential travel (and a closed US land border), but it was on Jan. 19 that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned Canadians directly to cancel any planned international trips and made clear that future travel rules could change at any time, making make it harder to return.

“People should not be planning non-essential travel or vacation travel outside of the country… or even across the country,” he said emphatically.

The warning was realized on Feb. 1 as the government, with the upcoming Spring Break travel period in mind and new COVID-19 variants taking hold in various destinations, ordered Canadian carriers to suspend all flights to sun destinations until April 30.

Less than two weeks later, on Feb. 12, the government further advised that all passengers arriving by air on and after Feb. 22 – and who since early January had already been required to show proof of a negative PCR test before entering the country – would have to swab a second time upon arrival and in only four designated gateways (Toronto, Montreal, Calgary and Vancouver), after which they would be required to stay for up to three days at a government-approved hotel (at their own expense). Upon receiving a negative test result, they could then complete the rest of their 10-day quarantine at home.

While the CBSA data doesn’t break down the impact of the individual factors affecting travel intentions, it should be noted that the agency’s numbers predate the Feb. 22 introduction of the strictest travel protocol – hotel quarantine.

Of which aviation expert and McGill University lecturer John Gradek observed, “That’s a very strong disincentive for people to fly. They scared everybody with a $2,000 bill for those three days.”

Moreover, subsequent reports of 10-hour phone waits to book a room and overcrowded hotels with delayed meal service have only added to the disincentive since the quarantine rule took effect.

In other words, expect arrivals numbers after Feb. 22 to be even lower.

Indeed, in a Tripcentral.ca survey of close to 6,000 past customers conducted at the end of February just after the new measures were introduced, fully half of respondents said that their first (32%) or second (18%) concern about travelling was being quarantined upon return.

Just over a month ago, Canada’s weather-prognosticating groundhog Wiarton Willie predicted an early spring this year. But, while the weather may be warming in much of the country, the forecast for travellers is clear: The chill is on!