Buoyed by a “decrease in the decline” in visitations and pent-up demand that is returning much earlier and at a much quicker pace than forecasters had predicted, the Caribbean Tourism Organization says it is “guardedly optimistic” about the prospects of tourism recovery in the region this summer and beyond.

“Although on the surface, a 60% decline in the first quarter of 2021, compared to the same period last year, may not seem encouraging, a closer examination would suggest that the Caribbean is beginning to reverse the slide which began at the end of March 2020,” says the CTO, which adds that its member countries have “worked tirelessly to contain the coronavirus and reopen their economies.”

Citing recent data collected from its member countries, the CTO reports:

• The first quarter of 2020 was the last period of regular levels of travel, when 7.3 million international overnight visitors (tourist arrivals) visited the region.

• In January and February 2021, arrivals to the region declined by just over 71% when compared to the same two months last year.

• However, the 16.5% drop in March 2021 compared to March 2020 is an indication of a level of reversal of the trend of declining numbers of tourist arrivals.

• The data collected from 12 destinations reporting tourist arrivals for April 2021 shows that each of these destinations registered growth, when compared to April 2020, when tourism activity was curtailed globally.

• Similarly, tourist arrivals bounced back in the destinations reporting data for May.

The CTO points out, however, that the number of stay-over visitors is still below the corresponding levels in 2019 and notes that it recognizes that “any optimism must be tempered by the fact that new COVID-19 cases are rising rapidly in both the UK and the US, two of the Caribbean’s major source markets… signs that the virus remains a major threat which can quickly reverse any progress we have made.”

Nevertheless, based on the aforementioned indicators, as well as an increase in American Airlines flights (six new routes and 35 destinations in the Caribbean), and the re-start of cruising, as well as flights from Canada in the late summer and fall the CTO says the Caribbean says tourism recovery in the Caribbean is for the rest of the year and into 2022 is on the rise.