Domestic and European airfares in North America are forecast to rise in 2023, though not as much as in other regions of the globe, according to American Express Global Business Travel’s annual Air Monitor 2023.

The report, created by Amex GBT’s Global Business Consulting team, is an annual forecast of airfare movements on key business travel routes. For next year, it predicts widespread airfare price rises around the world due to a range of factors including inflation, rising fuel costs and capacity issues.

Air Monitor 2023 finds price changes likely to vary widely by region, with distinctions across the two hemispheres.

North American domestic fares are expected to see moderate rises (3.4% business, 2.9% economy) as more capacity comes online in 2023.

Meanwhile, Europe-North America routes are expected to see modest rises of 3.7%, while intra-European flights could see stronger price rises (6% in the business cabin, 5.5% in economy) as airline capacity recovery lags behind the resurgence of demand.

In Asia, price rises are forecast to be sharper, with Asia-North America flights slated to see significant rises (5.6% business, 9.8% economy). Economy flights to and from Europe are expected top jump 12%, 7.6% in the business cabin while Australian domestic flights are forecast to rise 19.4% in the business cabin.

Some countries in the Asia-Pacific region have been slower to reopen after COVID-19 travel restrictions, and an increase in demand combined with relatively strong economic prospects could put upwards pressure on prices.

Air Monitor 2023 identifies key trends driving price movements and shaping aviation in the year ahead. These include airline capacity, inflation, and the impact of foreign exchange rates and fuel surcharges. With business travel currently challenged by volatility and disruption, the report offers advice on managing effective air programs and prioritizing the traveller experience.

To generate the forecasts, the Amex GBT data science team used the Prophet algorithm for time series modelling that combined historical transaction data with International Air Transport Association (IATA) booking demand and capacity constraints, macroeconomic variables including per capita GDP, and key inputs such as the price of oil.