The World Travel & Tourism Council predicts that recovery for the travel industry from the crippling COVID-19 pandemic could start as soon as late March. It’s a scenario that would see 84 million jobs – and perhaps as many 111 million in a “best-case scenario” – return to the beleaguered global sector this year.

Citing a significant rise in forward bookings from many major travel companies, backed by its own latest economic forecast, the WTTC is forecasting “a strong summer of travel ahead.”

Last year, during the height of the pandemic, WTTC warned that 174 million global Travel & Tourism jobs were at risk. However, in its latest analysis, WTTC’s most optimistic scenario predicts as many as 111 million jobs could be revived – though this would still be 17% below 2019 figures, accounting for 54 million fewer jobs.

This best-case scenario factors in widespread vaccination programs and a swift adoption of comprehensive test-and-trace regimes, together with continual, strong international coordination from the private and public sectors.

However, the forecast’s more conservative outcome would still see a return of 84 million jobs, which would be 25% below 2019 levels with 82 million fewer jobs recovered.

Under this latter scenario, the recovery of international travel is pushed to the second half of 2021 based on a more gradual roll-out of vaccines, and a slower removal of worldwide travel barriers and restrictions currently in place, resulting in reduced consumer confidence that leads to depressed demand to travel.

However, on Tuesday Gloria Guevara, WTTC President & CEO, said, “We are looking forward to a strong summer of travel, thanks to a combination of mask wearing, the global vaccination rollout, and testing on departure unlocking the door to international travel once more.

“Our latest research supports this and shows there is definitely hope on the horizon for the global Travel & Tourism sector in the year ahead… This projected outcome will come as huge relief and be welcomed as the beginning of the long-awaited recovery, for a sector which has for so long suffered the brunt of hugely damaging travel restrictions.”

Moreover, she added, “We believe the sector’s return will become a reality… But we must guard against complacency as the recovery is not a forgone conclusion. There is still a long way to go and we will encounter many more bumps in the road ahead. Vaccinations in major source markets, such as the UK and the US, will help us navigate our way out of the pandemic into a world where travel can once again thrive.”