The news rippled through Treasure Island, Fla., almost like a third storm: The mayor planned to move off the barrier island a month after Hurricane Helene flooded tens of thousands of homes along the Gulf Coast and two weeks after Hurricane Milton also ravaged the state.
Mayor Tyler Payne’s home had been flooded and damaged beyond repair, he explained in a message to Treasure Island residents, and he and his husband can’t afford to rebuild. He also was stepping down as mayor.
Up and down Florida’s storm-battered Gulf Coast, residents are making the same calculations about whether they should stay or go. Can they afford to rebuild? What will insurance cover? People considering moving to Florida are contemplating whether it’s worth the risk to come to a hurricane-prone state.
These existential questions about Florida’s appeal are raised regularly after the state experiences a busy hurricane season, such as in 2004, when four hurricanes crossed the Sunshine State.
If moves into the state offer any answer, then hurricanes have served little as deterrents. Florida’s population has grown by one-third to 23 million residents in the two decades since Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan ravaged the state. Last year, Florida added more than 365,000 residents, second only to Texas among states.
On the other hand, there are signs that Florida’s white-hot real estate market has cooled. Sales of single-family homes were down 12% in September compared with the same time in the previous year. But interest rates, rising home prices and skyrocketing insurance costs likely played bigger roles than the recent hurricanes.
“Florida recovers much faster than you think,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist for Florida Realtors.
What happens after a storm?
Studies of hurricanes along the Gulf Coast have shown that any outbound migration tends to be short-lived, and if people do leave, it’s usually a short-distance move, such as from a barrier island to the mainland. Older people with more financial resources are more likely to return to devastated communities.
When it comes to the housing market, there may be an initial shock to the supply as homeowners wait for reimbursement from insurance companies to fix up their homes or sell them.
But in the three years after a hurricane, home prices in areas of Florida that were hit by one are 5% higher on average than elsewhere in the state because of smaller supply, according to a study of the impact of hurricanes on Florida’s housing market from 2000 to 2016. New homeowners tend to be richer than previous ones since wealthier buyers can absorb price increases.
Other factors that determine how quickly communities bounce back include whether homes were insured, the speed of insurance reimbursements and whether there are enough construction workers. Because of stricter building codes implemented in the years after Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992, newer homes withstand hurricanes better than older ones, O’Connor said.
“If a property is damaged and uninsured, and the homeowner says, ‘I don’t want to deal with this,’ there are always people willing to scoop up that property because it’s valuable land,” he said. “People build new homes under the new codes and there’s less of an impact from hurricanes.”
Meanwhile, in his message to constituents, Payne said he would still stay connected to the Treasure Island community because his parents plan to rebuild on the barrier island, one of a string of beach towns along the Gulf of Mexico west of St. Petersburg known for motels, restaurants and bars lining the street.
Payne said in his message that his decision to move was “difficult,” adding, “I completely empathize with the difficult decisions that are facing so many of our residents.”
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