North America is leading the global travel recovery this summer, comprising a global “powerhouse” for the travel industry, and, at the same time, surpassing 2019 levels, according to international analytics form ForwardKeys.
Globally, travel recovery by origin market is mixed, with varying paces of recovery evident in the different global subregions, as expressed by forward tickets for international travel in summer 2023.
However, the US and Canada show the most impressive recovery rates – 11% and 4% respectively – with forward tickets for summer already surpassing 2019 volumes. Notably the two countries are the only two surpassing pre-pandemic levels, with the global aggregate sitting at -13% overall.
The popularity of intraregional destinations, particularly in and around the Caribbean, is a major factor for both Canada and the US, as well as domestic travel growth – up by 4% in both markets – and long-haul travel which remains ahead of 2019 levels.
According to ForwardKeys, “North American markets look set to maintain their position as the travel industry’s powerhouse in summer 2023.”
Global outlook
Meanwhile, the recovery of outbound air travel from the EU countries is more limited (-11%) – which is attributable to the current economic situation. According to the report, financial insecurity has affected both regional trips, as consumers reconfigure their budgets, and long-haul trips, where the higher costs are now unfeasible for many.
By contrast, the outlook for UK outbound international travel is relatively positive, maintaining similar volumes to summer 2022. In Latin America, international travel is recovering steadily, driven principally by intraregional travel between its constituent countries, including business and VFR.
All eyes have been on China since it reopened to international travel earlier this year – but reactivation of Chinese outbound travel has faced challenges, including targeted restrictions, passport and visa processing delays, limited air connectivity, and high air fares.
But despite these obstacles, there are positive signs of recovery, such as the pilot program for group tours to approved countries, strong demand for regional destinations during the Labour Day holiday, and the popularity of long-haul destinations like Dubai. As air connectivity improves and consumer confidence returns, demand is expected to increase into summer.
Among other major Asia Pacific markets, India has shown the fastest recovery in terms of outbound travel while South Korea catches up behind.
Olivier Ponti, VP Insights, ForwardKeys says, “While the outlook for summer travel currently looks relatively rosy, there are a few reasons to be cautious. Inflation is high, so while consumers may again be travelling, they may not be spending quite so liberally. Also, if there is a late surge in demand, the recovery could be thwarted if operators are not prepared; and stories of travel chaos deter last minute bookings.”