Travel agencies are seeing a surge in bookings as the March break approaches but say a real spike will hinge on how far the federal government rolls back COVID-19 testing rules – which health minister Jean-Yves Duclos says will happen to some degree this week.

Tripcentral.ca president Richard Vanderlubbe says bookings to sun destinations now top 50% of pre-pandemic levels, with an uptick over the weekend as word spread of the possible wind-down of testing requirements.

Calls are coming in so fast he’s struggling to hire enough employees to handle them, with rebookings that follow cancelled flights making for especially drawn-out customer service chats.

At Flight Centre, spokesperson Allison Wallace says confidence in travel safety is building as about 80% of Canadians are now double vaccinated.

While bookings for the next month remain at 40% of pre-pandemic levels, March break departure numbers have shot up to more than eight times their amount from a year earlier, when Canadian airlines had grounded flights to sun destinations.

“We are extremely busy as we’ve seen a significant increase in both inquiries and bookings. Last year… there was a lot more uncertainty around restrictions and border requirements that were changing regularly,” she said. “The PCR testing upon arrival is the biggest deterrent for people right now and if the government does in fact announce its removal (or even a rapid antigen test instead), we expect to see bookings increase dramatically beyond March break.”

Vanderlubbe believes the extent of a travel rebound will turn on the degree of testing scale-back. “The devil’s going to be in the details with a PCR test announcement,” he says. “Are they going to replace it with antigen? Are they going to lift the travel advisory?”

The latter, he says, “is a major piece because it knocks out medical insurance on standard policies for COVID. People have to buy extra policies. So, if the travel advisory is reduced from ‘avoid all non-essential travel’ to country-specific warnings again, like it was earlier in late October, we could see a bigger resurgence,” Vanderlubbe said.

If not, the warning serves as another deterrent to trip-seekers by piling on more (additional insurance) costs for passengers.

Also, for now, families who go abroad with children under five (who are not yet approved for vaccinations) are required to quarantine their kids for two weeks upon return, since all unvaccinated residents must self-isolate after re-entering the country, leading to lost time at school amongst other problems.

With all of these issues at hand, and new government guidance seemingly imminent, the Canadian Travel and Tourism Roundtable (“The Roundtable”) lobbed one last volley yesterday, sending an open letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reiterating its long-held demands that the federal government lay out a plan for the removal of pre-departure and on-arrival testing for fully vaccinated travellers and others.

“Canada is in a new phase of the COVID-19 pandemic – one marked by widespread vaccination and high levels of prior infection, and one which many Medical Officers of Health have called endemic,” the letter reads. “From Denmark and the United Kingdom to Switzerland, Ireland and Norway, many forward-thinking countries worldwide have recognized that the time has come to remove COVID-19 travel restrictions for fully vaccinated travellers. We believe Canada should do the same.”

Signed by close to 30 travel and tourism and entertainment and hospitality executives from across the country and representing organizations from Accor to WestJet and ACTA to Tourism Toronto, the letter continued, “Canadians have been among the most cooperative citizens anywhere in the world, rolling up their sleeves, staying home, and cancelling or adjusting travel or personal plans time and time again… (and) our industry has been in lockstep with the government by prioritizing safety since the beginning of the pandemic – including through our strong support of vaccination…”

But it adds, “COVID-19 policies should be based on science but there is no logical or scientific reason that travel should be singled out as the only activity that requires testing and isolation. As a country we have learned a lot over the last two years and it’s time we apply an updated approach to our thinking to quickly and safely transition out of this most recent phase of the pandemic.

“It’s time for the federal government to begin encouraging Canadians to travel and to invite the world to once again explore what our great country has to offer.

As provinces come out of lockdowns and with the spring and summer travel seasons on the horizon, we urgently request that the federal government allow the travel and tourism sector to reopen alongside all other sectors of the economy.”