By Michael Baginski/ Despite a 16 percent increased forecast for flights to the Caribbean from Canada this summer, a new study says lift from this country to the region is not keeping up with travel demand that is peaking due in part to travellers seeking alternatives to travel to the U.S.
The report by prominent global travel analytics firm ForwardKeys, which was released at last week’s 43rd annual Caribbean Travel Marketplace in Antigua, noted that flight searches from Canada for travel in Q3 2025 (July-September) are up 22% year-over-year, driven by major urban centres like Montreal, which shows a 62% surge in searches.
“Canadian air connectivity to the Caribbean currently follows a pronounced seasonal pattern, with available seats typically decreasing during the low season spanning from May through October. However, this period coincides with the northern hemisphere’s summer vacation period, presenting a strategic window for Caribbean destinations to attract more Canadian visitors. Encouragingly, travel intent from Canada shows robust growth during this window,” says the report.
While ForwardKeys acknowledges that “airlines appear to be recognizing this opportunity, with seat capacity from Canada to the Caribbean in summer 2025 forecast to be +16% higher than in 2024, this increase still lags behind the growth in travel intent (+22%), suggesting potential unmet demand.”
The reports goes on to state that the “connectivity gap” is further illustrated by strong search growth from Canada towards destinations currently lacking direct flights during this period, such as the US Virgin Islands (+193%) and British Virgin Islands (+124%), as well as destinations like Puerto Rico (+121%) and Saint Kitts & Nevis (+92%), which receive direct Canadian flights in peak season, but not during the summer.
Currently, the lack of direct summer flights forces the majority of Canadian travellers heading to the Caribbean if off-season to transit via the U.S., with Atlanta serving as the primary hub, the study notes – a reliance on connections that adds complexity and potential cost, and reveals a clear opportunity for airlines and Caribbean DMOs, and Canadian airlines, to collaborate on adding or extending direct flight schedules further into the summer low season.
“The Caribbean remains an exceptionally attractive region for global travellers, and our report uncovers significant opportunities for continued development and growth,” said Olivier Ponti, Director – Intelligence & Marketing at ForwardKeys. “While current demand is robust, there is considerable potential to expand further. This growth is vital for the region’s economy, but it also underscores the need for destinations to manage it strategically.”
Sanovnik Destang, President of the Caribbean Hotel & Tourism Association (CHTA), added: “This report reinforces what many of us in the Caribbean already recognize – interest in our region is strong and rising. But it also reminds us that to truly capitalize on this momentum, we need to think beyond individual destinations. Taking a more united, regional approach – improving air access, aligning our strategies, and creating unforgettable experiences – will help us grow tourism in a way that benefits communities and businesses across the Caribbean.”
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