On a scale of five, the head of the world’s biggest cruise company believes the chances of ships sailing from US waters in 2020 is 4.9. And the Carnival exec’s hopeful outlook for a near-term resumption of service is shared by other major cruise brand officials, despite a slew of November cruise cancellations announced this week.

Even with a tentative return to sailing in European waters, the cruise industry’s US departures for lucrative Caribbean and southern cruises, which have been shut down since March 13 due to COVID-19 pandemic, are the holy grail.

Restricted by a ban on cruising until at least Oct. 31, by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), CLIA members (representing 95% of the global cruise industry) have voluntary ceased operations until the same date, though in reality, many cruise companies have already curtailed cruises for longer. This week, Royal Caribbean Group said it has further extended its pause until Nov. 30 (excluding Hong Kong), as has Norwegian Cruise Line (including Oceania and Regent Seven Seas), and MSC Cruises for most (but not all) of its sailings.

And with ongoing coronavirus task force talks with the White House derailed by the president contracting COVID-19, it is unclear when the cruise industry will receive relief.

However, despite acknowledging the uncertainty of getting long-awaited regulatory approval, Carnival Corp. CEO Arnold Donald told delegates earlier this week at the Seatrade Cruise Virtual 2020 Virtual conference, “in terms of optimism, I’m 4.5, 4.9 – but it’s because I know the commitment of this industry.”

Donald points to stringent, mandatory health and safety protocols adopted by the industry – including 100 percent testing before boarding – as proof that cruise lines are set to sail and says, “We are going to standout relative to the rest of the travel sector and many other sectors of business and social gatherings with protocols that go well beyond what anyone else is doing.”

For his part, Richard Fain, chairman and CEO of Royal Caribbean Cruises (which also counts Celebrity and Azamara among its brands), said his optimism level is “very high” that cruising in the Western Hemisphere will resume this year.

But he added that any restart will be gradual. “We’re going to start with test cruises, I think, and then a few shorter cruises and gradually build up as we build up our experience,” he says. “But I do think that’s going to start this year. I’m highly, highly optimistic… I am smiling.”

A note of caution is issued by Frank Del Rio, president and CEO Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, who points out that even when the CDC’s green light is given, that it can take up to 60 days to stand up a vessel for sailing. “It’s not like turning on a light switch,” he says.

However, an obstacle that cruise lines won’t have to contend with, the Norwegian boss says, is lack of demand. “The future business we’re all booking is a lot stronger than you’d expect it to be given that the industry has completely shut down, that our sales and marketing efforts have been literally turned to zero, many travel agents are not working, and ports around the world are closed.

“Against that backdrop, that we are booking as much business for the future shows that the resiliency of our industry is alive and well.”

Del Rio points to his Oceania brands “best holiday sales efforts ever – ever!” during a recent promotion, while last week Regent Seven Seas sold out its 2023 world cruise upon debut. “We’ve never had a world cruise sell out within a week,” Del Rio said, adding, “And these aren’t cruises to nowhere, they aren’t cruises to private islands, they are cruises around the world. People want to get back to their normal life and this pandemic is an interruption in their normal life.”

As for cruise lines, “This (pandemic) is a bump in the road,” Del Rio says. “We’re going to come back smarter and come back in a way that put health and safety even more in the forefront than we’ve had before. We’re going to come back strong.”

But will it be in 2020, Frank?

“Whether its Dec. 22 or Jan. 3, I think we’re in the ballpark! If a couple of things go our way, I think we could be sailing soon.”