In news that will surprise absolutely no one, recent research in the UK indicates that a booking boom occurred in that country immediately after mandatory COVID-19 tests for vaccinated travellers were eliminated. The data supports urgent pleas from across the Canadian travel and tourism industry for the government here to do the same.

Conducted by ForwardKeys, which collects and analyzes the latest commercially available air ticketing data, the research reveals that combined inbound and outbound flight bookings jumped to 84% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels after the UK government’s announcement on Jan. 24. Specifically, outbound bookings increased 106% and inbound 47%.

The move was the latest by the government following a series of relaxations in rules affecting travel to the UK, each triggering bookings spikes.

On Jan. 5, the UK said that fully vaccinated travellers would be able to take a lateral flow instead of a PCR test on or before day two of their arrival in England. And 10 days later, the Times issued a report (which was not denied) that travellers would be able to go on half-term holidays without taking COVID-19 tests on their return.

Yesterday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson further indicated that laws requiring people in England with COVID-19 to self-isolate for five days could be lifted by the end of the month, bringing an end to all domestic coronavirus restrictions.

UK outbound

Benchmarked against pre-pandemic levels, the five destinations for which bookings recovered most strongly in January were: Mexico, 72% up on 2019; The Maldives, 54%; Greece, 22%; Cyprus 20%; and Barbados, 16%.

At the same time, typical seasonality patterns returned with peaks showing for the forthcoming half-term break in February and the Easter holiday period, when looking at flight tickets confirmed in January.

In relative terms, the demand to travel abroad during the extended holiday weekend to celebrate Queen Elizabeth’s Platinum Jubilee, in early June, is already 13% ahead of 2019.

UK inbound

The recent surge in outbound bookings has been closely followed by a modest revival in inbound demand.

As of Jan. 31, the strongest origin markets (measured by flight tickets issued) were led by Nigeria at 73% of pre-pandemic (2019) levels, followed by Ireland, 47%; the US, 47%; Brazil, 47%; and Saudi Arabia, 45%.

Olivier Ponti, VP of Insights at ForwardKeys, said: “‘Chocks away!’ – a term used by WW2 pilots to remove the blocks in front of their undercarriage so they could take off – is the ideal metaphor to describe what’s happening right now in the market for travel to and from the UK. By withdrawing the impediment of testing and the risk of quarantine for fully vaccinated travellers, flight bookings are surging ahead.”

Ponti points out, however, that UK travellers are returning mainly to traditional sea and sun destinations.

“A clear sign that the pandemic is still very much with us is the absence of a revival in city tourism or travel to airports strongly associated with skiing,” he says. “However, if we see Continental European countries relaxing their travel restrictions in the way the UK has just done, I expect to see a flood of holiday bookings that could exceed pre-pandemic levels, thanks to a release of the huge pent-up demand.”