A key Canadian airline executive says he expects flying activity will move closer to pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter, despite being thrown off course by the omicron variant over the past two months.

The CEO of Chorus Aviation, which provides regional service for the country’s largest carrier and leases planes across the globe, says the use of aircraft on Air Canada regional routes could reach 87% between April and June as demand rises in step with easing travel restrictions and COVID-19 anxieties.

Joe Randell adds that Air Canada plane use is on track to reach 60% of the 2019 level in the current quarter. That’s after ending the year at 76%, which sat at the bottom end of the company’s guidance in the fall.

“The fourth quarter was going well, etc. And then omicron struck,” Randell says. “While there is a drop in the first quarter as a result of omicron, I think there’s reason to believe that now things are going to pick back up and we’re going to get to where we were pre-omicron and plus,” Randell said.

The expectations mark a slight scale-down from enthusiastic predictions three months ago, when Randell said a return to full operations by late in the second quarter “could be very achievable.”

Some of Chorus’s 17 plane-leasing clients remain in a financial hole, resulting in cash collection of 83% – an improvement from 77% in the third quarter – as more carriers find their footing.

Philippine Airlines emerged from bankruptcy last month and Aeromexico, which filed for Chapter 11 protection in the United States in June 2020 amid US$2 billion in debt, is poised to exit bankruptcy.

A return to the skies will be “first and foremost” among short-haul domestic passengers looking to visit friends and family – a boon for Chorus, whose Jazz Aviation subsidiary provides service to Air Canada regional flights that cater less directly to international business customers, said analyst Walter Spracklin of RBC Dominion Securities.

Air Canada says it expects to reach 90% of pre-pandemic flying levels in North America this summer and late last week, Air Canada chief executive Michael Rousseau told analysts there are “unmistakable signs of revival,” such as robust advance ticket sales and the active restoration of the carrier’s network with 118 stations served at the end of 2021 up from 70 at its start, and the average number of daily flights rising to 665 in December 2021 from 245 in January 2021.

And, most importantly, he said, “We have recalled over 10,000 colleagues, including 3,900 in the fourth quarter, and we have also begun hiring new employees. As we move into 2022, all expectations are that the recovery in air travel will continue, albeit unevenly. Nonetheless, we believe the regeneration of our business will gain momentum.”

IATA

Chorus and Air Canada’s enthusiasm is similarly borne out by IATA, which released data last week showing growing momentum in the recovery of air travel globally as restrictions are lifted.

The airline association reported a sharp 11-percentage point increase for international tickets sold in recent weeks (in proportion to 2019 sales) – the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the global health crisis began. Most recently, in the period around Feb. 8 (seven-day moving average) the number of tickets sold stood at 49% of the same period in 2019.

IATA notes that the jump in ticket sales comes as more governments announce a relaxation of COVID-19 border restrictions and the growing number of vaccinated travellers.

“Momentum toward normalizing traffic is growing. Vaccinated travellers have the potential to travel much more extensively with fewer hassles than even a few weeks ago,” says IATA Director General Willie Walsh. “This is giving growing numbers of travellers the confidence to buy tickets.”

Airbus

Even aircraft manufacturers are getting in on the action, with Airbus reporting record profit of US$4.8 billion last year as the company delivered more planes with the global economy rebounding from the coronavirus pandemic.

It is the first annual profit for the Toulouse, France, manufacturer since 2018, before the spread of COVID-19 reduced air travel to levels not seen since before the jet era.

Airbus delivered 611 commercial aircraft in 2021, up from 566 the year before. And the company expects to carry that momentum through 2022, forecasting that it will deliver 720 commercial aircraft this year. Orders were also robust in its helicopter and defense and space businesses.

CEO Guillaume Faury said, “2021 was a year of transition, where our attention shifted from navigating the pandemic towards recovery and growth.”