AFTER THE HURRICANES: Canada fuels Caribbean tourism recovery

19 FEB 2019:  Caribbean tourism is on the upswing and Canada is currently leading the charge.  This country outperformed all other Caribbean source markets in 2018 with 3.9 million visits, representing 5.7% growth – figures the Caribbean Tourism Organization attributes to a strong economic performance and increased seat capacity to the region.

Overall, the Caribbean received 29.9 million tourist visits in 2018, the second highest on record, surpassed only by the 30.6 million who visited in 2017.

However, despite such heady numbers, the region actually declined by 2.3 percent in arrivals – the first decline in nine years and a drop largely attributable to damage to some destinations caused by natural calamities, notably Hurricane Irma in September 2017, which resulted in many visitors staying home or travelling elsewhere.

Still the decline in arrivals was less than forecast and was confined to the first eight months of the year, followed by a significant rebound starting in September that culminated in an almost 10 percent rise in the last quarter.

Among the leading destinations in 2018 were Guyana (+15.9%), Belize (14.6%), the Cayman Islands (10.7%), The Bahamas (10.5%) and Grenada (10.0%), while hurricane-impacted countries such as Puerto Rico (-45.6%) and St. Maarten (-79%) suffered massive declines year over year, though they too registered triple digit growth in Q4.

“We are pleased to report that tourism accommodations are being rebuilt and reopened, airports are receiving their full schedule of flights with the return of airlines in full force and the diverse product offerings within our destinations are being restored,” says Caribbean Tourism Organization secretary general Hugh Riley. “At the same time, increases in the number of available seats, positive messaging and promotions in the marketplace have enabled the unaffected destinations to register continuous growth. The demand among international visitors is strong…”

Regarding the cruise sector, most ports have been repaired and cruise calls have already returned to normal levels, Riley added.

As for 2019, the organization is forecasting strong growth. “We are projecting that tourist arrivals will increase by between six and seven percent in 2019, as the damaged infrastructure in the hurricane-impacted destinations returns to capacity,” says CTO acting director of research Ryan Skeete. “Similarly, cruise arrivals should expand by a further four percent to five percent.”

Skeete did warn of possible “significant headwinds to navigate,” including the outcome of the Brexit negotiations in the UK, the on-going trade war between the United States and China, and the potential of more extreme weather events.

Still, he said, with global demand for international travel expected to remain strong, underpinned by healthy economic activity, and with improved air connectivity helping to boost arrivals, the outlook for Caribbean tourism in 2019 is cautiously optimistic.

“With a strong performance during the last four months of 2018, including a robust showing by countries impacted by the 2017 hurricanes, the evidence suggests that Caribbean tourism is on the upswing,” Skeete declared.

Echoing the CTO projection, Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association director general and CEO Frank Comito told delegates at the recent Caribbean Tourism Marketplace in Montego Bay, Jamaica, that his organization was “bullish” about the immediate future of tourism in the region, based on 85 percent of member hotels reporting “optimism” about a continuance of the strong results of late last year.

“We are seeing high levels of investments in upgrades of existing hotels over the past three years, and the growth in new room inventory contributes to modest increases in room rates as the region’s product continues to expand and improve,” said Comito. “This is a considerable shift from what we were seeing four years ago and is expected to continue this year.”

However, he too issued a note of caution, pointing out that the residual impacts of the 2017 hurricanes were still affecting several destinations and that changes to the global economy could quickly change the outlook.

To that end, he urged tourism officials to address any lingering unfavourable marketplace perceptions by making greater marketing investments.

“While we are definitely upbeat about the performance of tourism in the region,” he said, “We cannot rest on our laurels.”