The International Air Transport Association admits it does not expect 2019 levels of air travel to be exceeded until 2023, and it says long-haul/international travel is being the most severely impacted by COVID-19. IATA also says “quarantine measures on arrival would further damage confidence in air travel” and claims a “risk-based layered approach of globally harmonized biosecurity measures is critical for the restart”. As much as we all want to see people travelling again, does a “risk-based” approach not put revenue ahead of passenger safety?

IATA and Tourism Economics outlined two air travel scenarios:

Baseline Scenario

• Contingent on domestic markets opening in Q3, with a much slower phased opening of international markets. This would limit the air travel recovery, despite most forecasts pointing toward a strong economic rebound late this year and during 2021.

• In 2021 we expect global passenger demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometers, RPKs) to be 24% below 2019 levels and 32% lower than IATA’s October 2019 Air Passenger forecast for 2021.

• We don’t expect 2019 levels to be exceeded until 2023.

• As international markets open and economies recover, there will be further growth in air travel from the 2020 low point. But even by 2025 we would expect global RPKs to be 10% lower than the previous forecast.

Pessimistic Scenario

• This is based on a slower opening of economies and relaxation of travel restrictions, with lockdowns extending into Q3, possibly due to a second wave of the virus. This would further delay the recovery of air travel.

• In this case, global RPKs in 2021 could be 34% lower than 2019 levels and 41% below our previous forecast for 2021.

“Major stimulus from governments combined with liquidity injections by central banks will boost the economic recovery once the pandemic is under control. But rebuilding passenger confidence will take longer. And even then, individual and corporate travellers are likely to carefully manage travel spend and stay closer to home,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Long-haul travel impact will be longer lasting

When the recovery begins, it is expected to be led by domestic travel.

• An IATA survey of recent air travelers conducted in April 2020 found that 58% are somewhat or very likely to restrict their initial travel to domestic journeys.

• Domestic Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) will only recover to 2019 levels by 2022. International RPKs are only expected to return to 2019 levels in 2024.

“The impacts of the crisis on long-haul travel will be much more severe and of a longer duration than what is expected in domestic markets. This makes globally agreed and implemented biosecurity standards for the travel process all the more critical. We have a small window to avoid the consequences of uncoordinated unilateral measures that marked the post-9.11 period. We must act fast,” said de Juniac.

Avoid Quarantine Measures

IATA strongly urges governments to find alternatives to maintaining or introducing arrival quarantine measures as part of post-pandemic travel restrictions. IATA’s April survey of recent air travelers showed that

• 86% of travellers were somewhat or very concerned about being quarantined while traveling, and

• 69% of recent travellers would not consider travelling if it involved a 14-day quarantine period.

“To protect aviation’s ability to be a catalyst for the economic recovery, we must not make that prognosis worse by making travel impracticable with quarantine measures. We need a solution for safe travel that addresses two challenges. It must give passengers confidence to travel safely and without undue hassle. And it must give governments confidence that they are protected from importing the virus. Our proposal is for a layering of temporary non-quarantine measures until we have a vaccine, immunity passports or nearly instant COVID-19 testing available at scale,” said de Juniac.

IATA’s proposal for a temporary risk-based layered approach to provide governments with the confidence to open their border without quarantining arrivals includes:

• Preventing travel by those who are symptomatic with temperature screening and other measures

• Addressing the risks of asymptomatic travellers with governments managing a robust system of health declarations and vigorous contact tracing.”

Unsocial distances

There are a couple of issues.  Most forecasts do not point toward a strong economic rebound late this year and during 2021,  forecasts for the balance are 2020 and 2021 are mixed.

IATA came out last week in favor of passengers wearing masks onboard, but nowhere in the latest release is there any mention of that – or of any responsibility on the part of the airlines to ensure social distancing or the requirement for masks on aircraft.

In fact, while several major airlines have individually mandated facial coverings, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has declined to implement the requirement, and it is not clear if the agency has the authority to compel passengers to wear face masks.

Reuters reported this week that American Airlines, Delta and United have told flight attendants not to force passengers to comply with their new policy requiring face coverings once on board the aircraft. According to employee policies, flight attendants can only ‘encourage’ passengers to wear masks.

Airline employees may deny boarding at the gate to anyone not wearing a face covering, but those masks can be removed once the passengers have boarded.

“Once on board and off the gate, the face covering policy becomes more lenient. The flight attendant’s role is informational, not enforcement, with respect to the face covering policy,” American told its pilots in a message seen by Reuters explaining its policy, which went into effect on Monday.

Passengers are also “reminded” to wear masks by announcements both during boarding and at departure

United said that any non-compliance by travellers would be addressed at the gate and that flight attendants had been advised to use their “de-escalation skills” on the aircraft and to reseat any passengers as needed. Delta has a similar policy.

All three airlines offer certain exemptions for young children or people with medical conditions or disabilities, and when people are eating or drinking.

The airlines’ unwillingness to enforce mask policies, the exemptions, the lack of mandatory social distancing on aircrafts, plus the possibility of seating changes being unavailable, make the so-called “policy” pointless.

Several airline union groups have called for a federal mandate on measures including masks, social distancing and cleaning.

“Airlines are implementing policies on the fly with essentially no coordination or direction from the federal government,” said Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, representing nearly 50,000 flight attendants at 19 airlines.

“We need federal requirements that mitigate risk during this pandemic and put the safety of crews and the traveling public first.”