The U.S. expected 2025 to be a big travel year, but overseas visitors – angered by Trump – are heading elsewhere. The number of international visitors to the United States jumped in 2024, and some forecasts predicted arrivals from abroad this year would reach pre-COVID levels.

But three months into the year, international arrivals are plummeting.

Angered by Trumps’ tariffs and rhetoric, and alarmed by reports of tourists being arrested at the border, citizens of other countries besides Canada are staying away from the U.S. and choosing to travel elsewhere.

Marco Jahn, president and CEO of New World Travel, a California company that works with overseas tour operators on vacation packages and activity planning, says bookings have dropped between 20% and 50%, depending on the source market, over the last eight to 10 weeks. He notes particular declines from Scandinavia, where Trump’s repeated threat to take control of Greenland, a self-governing territory of NATO ally Denmark, has antagonized citizens.

“The U.S. is not perceived as a welcoming destination,” Jahn said.

‘Trump slump’

The U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office released preliminary figures last week showing visits to the U.S. from overseas fell 11.6% in March compared to the same month last year. The figures did not include arrivals from Canada, or land crossings from Mexico. But air travel from Mexico dropped 23%.

For the January-March period, 7.1 million visitors entered the U.S. from overseas, 3.3% fewer than during the first three months of 2024.

The travel forecasting company Tourism Economics, which as recently as December anticipated the U.S. would have nearly 9% more international arrivals this year, revised its annual outlook last week to predict a 9.4% decline.

The company further states that the impact of the less favourable view of the U.S. from abroad could be severe enough that international visits won’t surpass pre-pandemic levels until 2029.

Canada

Tourism Economics expects some of the steepest declines will be from Canada, where Trump’s repeated suggestion that the country should become the 51st state and tariffs on close trading partners have angered many potential, and traditional, travellers. Canada was the largest source of visitors to the U.S. in 2024, with more than 20.2 million, according to U.S. government data.

Flight Centre Travel Group Canada said leisure bookings to U.S. destinations were down 40% in March compared to the same month a year ago. Air Canada has reduced its schedule of spring flights to Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona due to lack of demand.

“The survey data is all indicating a significant mix of cancellations and a massive drop in intent to travel,” Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks said.

Ian Urquhart, a professor emeritus at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, was supposed to go to Las Vegas for five days in June and see Coldplay in concert. He cancelled the trip to protest Trump’s “incredibly disparaging tone” toward Canada even though it meant losing a $500 deposit on the vacation package.

His oldest daughter similarly nixed a planned May trip to Sedona, Arizona, while his brother-in-law decided not to go on his usual weeklong golf trip to Scottsdale, Arizona, according to Urquhart.

“None of us jumped for joy when we made those decisions, but it seemed to be one of the few ways we could signal how we felt about the bullying that has been directed towards Canada by your president,” Urquhart said.

Beyond, a revenue management platform for vacation rental owners, said Canadian searches for short-term rentals in the U.S. plunged 44% after Feb. 1, when Trump first announced tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. Florida, Texas and New York were among the hardest-hit markets, Beyond said.

Overseas

According to the government data, international arrivals from China were down nearly 1%. Leisure trips by Chinese citizens to places like Disneyland, Hawaii and New York are decreasing dramatically and likely won’t pick up again until Trump has left office, said Wolfgang Georg Arlt, the CEO of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. He dubs it the “Trump Slump.”

Haruka Atomiya, a Tokyo resident, visits Los Angeles at least once a year. Last year, she brought her young children for the first time and did a lot of research to find affordable places to stay. The exchange rate made some hotels double or triple the price she paid in the past.

Atomiya, who went to college in Vermont, has always loved the diversity and the freedom in the U.S. She said she doesn’t understand why Americans elected Trump, but doesn’t plan to stop visiting unless she senses any physical danger.

“If America changes in a way that’s clearly visible, that’s a reality, too, and I will likely keep visiting,” she said. “What will happen to America after Trump intrigues me.”

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