A “black swan” worst-case hurricane scenario feared by scientists is set to wallop Tampa on Wednesday – something that hasn’t happened in nearly 100 years. On Monday, Hurricane Milton rapidly strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico to become a Category 5 hurricane – the strongest level – on a path toward Florida, prompting evacuation orders along the same stretch of coastline that was swamped by Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago.
Tampa hasn’t been smacked with a major hurricane since the deadly 1921 hurricane that had 3.3 metres of storm surge that inundated downtown Tampa, though there wasn’t much to the city at the time. Since then, a metropolis has grown and it’s “full of people who think they’ve lived through big storms when they haven’t,” said MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel.
“It’s a huge population. It’s very exposed, very inexperienced and that’s a losing proposition. I always thought Tampa would be the city to worry about most,” added Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years.
A hurricane warning was issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan state, and much of Florida’s west coast was under hurricane and storm surge watches. Florida’s Lake Okeechobee, which often floods during intense storms, was also under a hurricane watch.
“This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said at a news conference. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.”
The storm’s centre was about 1,160 km southwest of Tampa at midday Monday. Its centre is expected to come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area, and it could remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida – over Orlando and Jacksonville – toward the Atlantic Ocean. That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains.
Forecasters warned of a possible 2.4 to 3.6 m. in Tampa Bay and said flash and river flooding could result from 13 to 25 cm. of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 38 cm. in places.
The Tampa Bay area is still rebounding from Helene and its powerful surge. Twelve people died, with the worst damage along a string of barrier islands from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.
Milton’s approach is stirring memories of 2017’s Hurricane Irma, when about 7 million people were urged to evacuate Florida in an exodus that jammed freeways and clogged gas stations.
All road tolls were suspended in western central Florida. The St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said it would close after the last flight Tuesday, and Tampa International Airport said it planned to halt airline and cargo flights starting Tuesday morning.
Walt Disney World said it was operating normally for the time being.
It has been two decades since so many storms crisscrossed Florida in such a short period of time. In 2004, an unprecedented five storms struck Florida within six weeks, including three hurricanes that pummeled central Florida.
Although Tampa hasn’t been hit directly by a hurricane in over a century, other parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast are recovering from such storms in the past two years. The Fort Myers area in southwest Florida is still rebuilding from Hurricane Ian, which caused $112 billion in damage in 2022. Three hurricanes have thrashed Florida’s Big Bend region in just 13 months, including Helene.
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