Experts seemingly disagree whether WestJet’s decision to shut down Sunwing Airlines and fold it into its main operations could mean less service and higher fares – or whether the Competition Bureau, competitors, and savvy consumers will ensure that fares stay competitive.

Sunwing told employees it was being absorbed by its new owner on Wednesday, less than a week after WestJet announced plans to shutter discount subsidiary Swoop. Given the narrower flight options and pricier tickets likely to result from a merger of former competitors, the latest move is “not good news” for consumers looking to head to warmer destinations, said John Gradek, who teaches at McGill University’s aviation management program.

“There will be a reduction in air services and there will be a corresponding increase in prices,” Gradek said.

But aviation consultant Rick Erickson said he thinks that rival carriers will ensure a healthy mix of competition for sun destinations, with some fares barely affected.

“I don’t think there’s going to be a great deal of change, largely because consumers are fairly savvy, the Competition Bureau’s out there watching and there are other players in the market,” he said.

“Two big ones, Air Canada and Transat, are going to make sure that no glory profits are going to accrue to WestJet because of this,” Erickson said, adding that six-year-old discount carrier Flair Airlines is also becoming “fairly aggressive.”

Nonetheless, travellers in smaller markets ranging from Saskatoon to St. John’s, may have to shell out more, said Erickson.

“There could be some issues in those marketplaces,” he said, such as Kelowna and Prince George in BC, Fredericton and Moncton in New Brunswick, and Waterloo and Windsor in southern Ontario.

WestJet and Sunwing comprise 37% of seat capacity on direct flights to sun destinations, and 72% from Western Canada, according to an October report from the Competition Bureau.

WestJet completed its acquisition of Sunwing’s main airline and vacation divisions last month in a major consolidation of the Canadian aviation market. As a condition of Ottawa’s sign-off on the deal, the parties pledged to maintain capacity on the most affected routes and keep both the Sunwing Vacations head office in Toronto and a regional one in Montreal for at least five years.

WestJet confirmed in an email that Sunwing Vacations will continue as a separate entity, setting the stage for the Calgary-based carrier to fly Sunwing tour package customers to their resort spots.

Sunwing Vacations has been a price leader in the Canadian market, said Gradek. “The question is, how much does WestJet charge Sunwing Vacations for the use of those airplanes?”

On Monday, WestJet confirmed that the integration of Swoop is anticipated to conclude by the end of October 2023, but said Sunwing Airlines will not start integrating before 2024 – a process that could take a couple of years – and remains “business as usual at this time.”

It added that Sunwing Vacations and WestJet Vacations together will continue to operate independently under their existing and respective brands and “as a result, will both significantly expand vacation offerings to even more communities… as well as offering affordable vacation packages from communities in Canada on a year-round basis, which were previously seasonal.”

Furthermore, through leveraging the ultra-low fare products of Swoop and affordable vacation packages offered by Sunwing Vacations, the WestJet Group will begin providing increased affordable vacation packages across Canada through the entirety of its 180 aircraft, it stated.

WestJet Group CEO Alexis von Hoensbroech said, “We are confident that the future integration of Sunwing Airlines into the WestJet Group, following that of our ultra-low-cost carrier Swoop will significantly enhance our ability to provide affordability and choice to our guests. The integration of all jets from Sunwing Airlines, Swoop and WestJet into one fleet will provide us with the scale to enhance our collective operational resilience, while offering more affordable fares and vacation opportunities across our entire network.

“Competition amongst air carriers in Canada has never been healthier and after a challenging three years, aviation is back, with passenger traffic doubling in Canada since March 2022,” he continued. “As the strongest airline in Western Canada and the biggest vacation provider across the entire country – the integration of Swoop and eventually Sunwing Airlines into the WestJet Group will enhance affordability and serve to increase choice for Canadians for their air travel and vacation plans.”