Big head winds are blowing at the global travel industry. But, despite worldwide uncertainty such as trade wars and Brexit – and now Iran – and changing consumer behaviour that includes a move to mobile – the industry will continue to thrive and grow in the next five years, according to a new report by global market research company Euromonitor International.

The 14th annual report – “‘Megatrends Shaping the Future of Travel: 2019 Edition” – says worldwide travel will outperform the global economy during the next five years, increasing by 4.3% annually and accounting for US$3 trillion in business by 2024. Moreover, spending by travellers will continue to increase and surpass the current annual travel cost of US $1,101.

“Receipts are growing,” said Euromonitor’s head of research Caroline Bremner at the recent World Travel Market in London where the report was released. “That shows that we’re moving to a sustainable business model in the travel industry where people are spending more in destinations. The prognosis for travel is really positive.

“But we know that there is a lot of disruption and trends that are affecting consumers, whether its technological, social or environmental, she added. “There’s a whole lot of disruption coming from different angles.”

Among the findings of Euromonitor’s global analysis – dubbed “Megatrends” – are:

• Growth in domestic travel of 8% annually through 2024, fuelled by easier access and threshold to entry in Asia and India.

• 52% of 19 billion domestic trips and 1.8 billion international excursions will be booked online with a quarter of that conducted on mobile devices – “truly a growth success story” – and increasing by 10% per year.

• Global travellers are gravitating to experiences, with 43% of global consumers prioritizing experiences rather than possessions and 78% of those surveyed stating that they prefer “real world experiences, not virtual world,” when travelling.

• Spurred by young Swedish climate change activist Greta Thunberg, who has helped mobilize Gen Zers around the world, “The Greta Effect” is having an impact on travel businesses, such as airlines, as, for example “flight shaming” causes travellers to look for alternate means of travelling. Some companies have embraced the concept, with KLM urging customers to “fly responsibly” and even take a train for short journeys.

• Accessible travel is growing, driven by changing consumer demographics with a fifth of the world having access needs. There is a “very strong push” occurring in Europe in particular towards accessible and inclusive tourism with nations like Scotland, England, Germany amongst others “trying to make tourism accessible to all.” MSC Cruises, meanwhile, recently announced the roll out of an accessible shore excursions program in 20 destinations in the Caribbean and Mediterranean.

• Asia is emerging as a major innovation hub and the travel industry is at the forefront of this trend where many brands and sectors are digitally transforming, such as Oyo digitalizing budget hotels and Klook bringing activities online. Meanwhile, Asian consumers are using mobile and multifunctional “super apps” that combine social, financial and retailing services on one platform. WeChat already has one billion monthly active users.

• Under a scenario of “Trump’s adverse policies” that are committed to imposing more stringent immigration tariffs and policies, the US could see about nine million international trips (9.6%) “wiped off the map” by 2024. Mexico would suffer the greatest decline.

• In Latin America, a third of consumers buy through social networks, making it a lucrative tool for companies. “The influencers are following the example of the use of these platforms, becoming tourism operators that blur the boundaries between communication, purchase and experience.”

• Despite the challenges of the war in Syria and Yemen, the Middle East and Africa region continues to enjoy solid growth and it’s estimated that the region’s output will grow by 5.6% by 2024, led by Saudi Arabia, which is significantly investing in tourism and opening up to foreign tourists in order to reduce their economic dependence on oil.

In summary, Bremner says, “The global travel industry continues to power on.” But she cites trends such as climate activism, sustainability, accessibility, social commerce and technology like super apps to warn, “There is a change in the air.”

“We’re increasingly moving to a world where you can buy direct from Instagram,” she says as an example. “You can already do it for beauty and other retail products and one day we’ll have it for travel product. It’s already coming…”

And adds, “Investment in technology is key to help travel operators stay ahead of the competition (and) meet consumer needs for greater convenience and a seamless user experience.”

Encouragingly, travel retailers are staying ahead of the curve, Bremner says, noting that though 62% of bookings in North America are made online.

“We have not seen the death or decline of the travel agent,” she says. “Travel agents have transformed into travel advisors and embraced the online travel world.”