The latest US Business Travel Tracker reports that while companies are increasingly paring back pandemic-era restrictions on business travel, there are developing storm clouds in the form of persistently high inflation and a looming recession.

According to the Tracker, many companies slashed their business travel budgets during the pandemic, but less than half of companies (42%) still have policies in place restricting business travel – down from 50% in Q2.

Businesses have shown a willingness to get back on the road, with 78% of business travellers expecting to take at least one trip to attend conferences, conventions or trade shows, and 75% expecting to visit customers, suppliers or other stakeholders in the next six months.

In addition to the Business Travel Index, two separate surveys of corporate executives and business travellers form the Quarterly Business Travel Tracker, a product of the US Travel Association, J.D. Power and Tourism Economics.

However, the USTA says its forecast projects that business travel’s growth cannot be sustained in the long term, leading to a decline in the coming quarters.

The new survey data arrives as global economists sound the alarm about worsening economic conditions, including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who cautioned last week that “very, very serious” headwinds – including inflation, rising interest rates and the ongoing war in Ukraine – are likely to tip the US into a recession in the next six to nine months.

With many economists and business leaders anticipating a mild recession in 2023, companies may look for ways to limit investment and travel spending, delaying a full recovery in business travel activity – as reflected in the forward-looking Business Travel Index.

In the face of this slowdown, the USTA is calling on government to support temporary tax provisions that would encourage companies to restore business travel spending, particularly with regard to spending that supports workers in the food service and entertainment sectors.

The association is also urging the US to greatly reduce visitor visa interview wait time to facilitate more international business travel – which have crept to over 440 days on average from top source markets.

“Business travel is coming back slowly, and these policies will be essential to keeping employees on the road and helping still-recovering companies weather an oncoming recession,” said US Travel Association President and CEO Geoff Freeman.