Despite above-average ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic this summer, the 2022 hurricane season has gotten off to a quiet start, but bigger storms could still be on the way. Despite projections of a very active season from Environment Canada, no major storm developed in the month of August, the third time in the modern satellite era this has happened.
In fact, August 2022 saw the least active start to the season in 30 years, said Allister Aalders, SaltWire Network’s weather specialist.
“After two very busy years, it seems a lot quieter,” Aalders says. “We just usually don’t see periods where it’s so long where no storms develop.”
There are several factors for why no major storms developed in August. One being 2022 is a La Nina year, meaning trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia.
These trade winds, which are the continual winds that blow around the planet from east to west, tear up storm clouds before they can form.
La Nina events occur every three to five years. Typically, when La Nina patterns form there is less wind shear. However, wind shear was present for much of the summer, says Aalders, adding, “Wind shear tears apart tropical storms and hurricanes. It was very unfavourable this summer for any storms to develop.”
Other factors that lead to conditions being unfavourable include multiple plumes of Saharan dust from the west coast of Africa drifting over the Atlantic. The dust from the plumes dries out the atmosphere and delays the development of tropical storms and hurricanes.
This is a normal occurrence, but above-average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean this season could still lead to severe storms, as the most active months are yet to come, says Ian Hubbard, meteorologist with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, CHC, in Dartmouth, NS.
A slow start
The average Atlantic season has about 14 named storms, and usually seven hurricanes. This year is expected to see anywhere from six to 10.
The first report from the CHC predicting this came out in May. It was updated in August, and still found a 65% chance of seeing an above average number of hurricanes this year.
“Just because it’s been a slow start, doesn’t mean the whole season will be slow, as we’ve seen in the last couple days,” said Hubbard.
On Sept. 3, tropical cyclone Earl formed over the North Atlantic and began to move north towards Bermuda, ultimately reaching Atlantic Canada earlier this week as a post-tropical storm that brought heavy rain that caused some flooding.
“One storm can make quite a difference in certain areas if it strikes them or hits them,” said Hubbard. “So far, we’ve been lucky, but the worst could be yet to come.”
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to the end of November.