In its final accounting of air traffic levels last year, the International Air Transport Association reports that global air passenger demand was down 58.4% in 2021 over 2019, representing a small improvement from 2020. But in spite of “momentum in the right direction” sparked by passenger demand, IATA believes governments must reinforce that confidence by normalizing travel again.
IATA notes that because comparisons between 2021 and 2020 results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, its comparisons are to the respective 2019 period, which followed a normal demand pattern.
Among IATA’s findings:
• International passenger demand in 2021 was 75.5% below 2019 levels. Capacity, (measured in available seat kilometres or ASKs) declined 65.3% and load factor fell 24.0 percentage points to 58.0%.
• Domestic demand in 2021 was down 28.2% compared to 2019. Capacity contracted by 19.2% and load factor dropped 9.3 percentage points to 74.3%.
• Total traffic for the month of December 2021 was 45.1% below the same month in 2019, improved from the 47.0% contraction in November, as monthly demand continued to recover despite concerns over Omicron. Capacity was down 37.6% and load factor fell 9.8 percentage points to 72.3%.
• North American airlines’ full year traffic fell 65.6% compared to 2019. Capacity dropped 52.0%, and load factor sank 23.8 percentage points to 60.2%. December demand was down 41.7% compared to the same month a year-ago, a pick-up over a 44.6% drop in November.
Impact of Omicron measures
Omicron travel restrictions slowed the recovery in international demand by about two weeks in December. International demand has been recovering at a pace of about four percentage points/month compared to 2019. Without Omicron, expected international demand for the month of December would likely have improved to around 56.5% below 2019 levels. Instead, volumes rose marginally to 58.4% below 2019 from -60.5% in November.
“Overall travel demand strengthened in 2021. That trend continued into December despite travel restrictions in the face of omicron,” said IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh. ”That says a lot about the strength of passenger confidence and the desire to travel.
“The challenge for 2022,” he continued, “is to reinforce that confidence by normalizing travel. While international travel remains far from normal in many parts of the world, there is momentum in the right direction. Last week, France and Switzerland announced significant easing of measures. And yesterday the UK removed all testing requirements for vaccinated travellers. We hope others will follow their important lead, particularly in Asia where several key markets remain in virtual isolation.”
Walsh is adamant that as COVID-19 continues to evolve from the pandemic to endemic stage, “it is past time for governments to evolve their responses away from travel restrictions that repeatedly have been shown to be ineffective in preventing the spread of the disease, but which inflict enormous harm on lives and economies.
“A New Year’s resolution for governments,” he maintains, “should be to focus on building population immunity and stop placing travel barriers in the way of a return to normality.”