With the right measures, Travel and Tourism’s continued “sluggish” recovery could be accelerated, saving 19 million jobs globally and setting the sector on course to reach (record) 2019 levels by 2022, says the World Travel and Tourism Council. But as it stands, with travel’s year-on-year contribution to global GDP forecast to rise by less than one third in 2021, the WTTC instead says, “the future could be brighter.”

According to its latest research, the leading organization representing Travel and Tourism’s private sector says the recovery of the sector has been hampered by the lack of international coordination, severe travel restrictions and slower vaccination rates in some parts of the world, which still hamper many regions of the world.

In 2019, the Travel and Tourism sector generated nearly US$9.2 trillion to the global economy, however in 2020, the pandemic brought Travel and Tourism to an almost complete standstill which resulted in a 49.1% drop, representing a massive loss of nearly $4.5 trillion.

While the global economy is set to receive a modest 30.7% year on year increase from Travel and Tourism in 2021, this will only represent $1.4 trillion and is mainly driven by domestic spending, says the WTTC

The economic modelling was conducted by Oxford Economics on behalf of WTTC and calculated a baseline scenario based on the current global vaccination rollout, consumer confidence, and relaxed travel restrictions in some in regions around the world.

The research reveals that at the current rate of recovery, Travel and Tourism’s contribution to the global economy could see a similar moderate year on year rise of 31.7% in 2022.

Last year, WTTC revealed the loss of a staggering 62 million Travel and Tourism jobs around the world and with the current pace of recovery, jobs are set to rise by only 0.7% this year, leaving 19 million jobs in the balance.

At the same time, research shows a more hopeful potential year-on-year jobs rise across the sector next year, by a positive 18%.

“Our research clearly shows that while the global Travel and Tourism sector is beginning to recover from the ravages of COVID-19 there are still too many restrictions in place, an uneven vaccine rollout, resulting in a slower than expected recovery of just under a third this year,” says WTTC President and CEO Julia Simpson.

“If governments can start looking internationally and support Travel and Tourism with simplified rules to enable the safe return of travel, there is the opportunity to save jobs and boost economic wealth”.

According to the research, the sector’s contribution to global GDP and the rise in jobs could be more positive this year and next, if the following measures are met:

• Allow fully vaccinated travellers to move freely, irrespective of their origin or eventual destination, removing complex tiered systems.

• The implementation of digital solutions which enable all travellers to easily prove their COVID status, so in turn speeding up the process at borders around the world.

• Recognition of all vaccines authorised by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and/or any of the Stringent Regulatory Authorities (SRA).

• Agreement from all relevant authorities that international travel is safe with enhanced health and safety protocols.

The future could be brighter

The research shows that if those four vital rules are followed before the end of 2021, the impact on the global economy and jobs could be significant, says the WTTC, including the sector’s contribution to the global economy jumping by up to 37.5% and reaching $6.4 trillion this year (compared to $4.7 trillion in 2020).

However, the organization adds there is still hope if restrictions continue being lifted and with more international cooperation, governments could bring back nearly 19 million jobs before the year ends (up 6.8%).

The trend continues into next year when the sector’s contribution to the global economy could see a year on year rise of 34%, reaching $8.6 trillion, close to 2019, a record year for Travel and Tourism. Similarly, jobs could surpass 2019 levels – up 20.1% year on year, to more than 349 million.