By Michael Baginski/ Heading south for the winter has been a Canadian ritual for generations, but this winter a dramatic new shift in Canadian travel trends is emerging, according to the Travel Health Insurance Association of Canada – one that threatens to see snowbirds roosting at home rather flying the Canadian winter coop.
The THIAC’s just-released Winter Smart Traveller Survey found that while only 26% of Canadians are likely to head south of the border this winter – a 37% drop from previous years, the pullback is sharpest among Boomers, traditionally the snowbird generation, with only 10% planning U.S. trips (down 66%).
(By comparison, the survey said that 44% of Gen Z are likely to visit the U.S. down only 18%, underscoring a clear generational divide in travel behaviour).
Beyond destinations, the survey shows Canadians are becoming more cautious and cost-conscious when planning trips. Rising travel costs (41%), political tensions with the U.S. (40%) and abroad (24%), as well as concerns around exchange rates (29%) and safety (20%) are all shaping travel decisions this winter.
Stephen Fine, founder of Snowbird Advisor and Snowbird Advisor Insurance, reported his organization is seeing “some interesting things” from the large snowbird market, which counts about a million Canadians in the demographic who typically go away for the winter.
Of that number, Fine says there is approximately an 80/20 split between those who go to the U.S. (former), versus international markets.
Speaking on a recent panel for the Discover America Canada Committee, Fine said, “This year, it’s a mixed bag so far. We’re hearing some snowbirds that are adamant that they won’t go to the U.S. in the current environment; others are saying that they are reluctantly going to go; and others are saying they are enthusiastically returning to the U.S. – so it’s all over the map right now.”
Fine adds that Snowbird Advisor is seeing considerable interest in the traditional U.S. hot spots, such as Florida, Arizona, California, Texas, Hawaii, and South Carolina, but also a strong interest in international destinations like Mexico, Portugal, Spain, Costa Rica, the Caribbean, Panama, and even Australia/New Zealand.
The latter international destinations have been “gaining traction” with snowbirds in recent years, but this year the interest is “hyper charged,” he says.
At the same time, he cautions, “it’s very hard to tell at this point how much of that interest will translate into action, because there’s always a lot of interest… We’re getting close to snowbird season and people are starting to leave now, and more people will be leaving at the end of October and throughout the winter, so it will be interesting to see what happens.”
Fine says there are several things to keep in mind that may influence the migration, including that most of the factors that are currently affecting U.S. travel from Canada (tariffs, 51st state rhetoric, re-entry registration requirements) primarily happened at the end of snowbird season last year, which generally concluded in April.
“So, we didn’t really get a good gauge last year on how these things are going to affect snowbird season; so, this season is really going to be our first insight into how the snowbird demographic is impacted on that front,” he says.
Certainly, Fine concedes that there is considerable – and vocal – negative feedback from some snowbirds right now about crossing the border, but, at the same time, he points out that many snowbirds are tied to the U.S. in ways that other potential Canadian travellers aren’t.
For example, he points out that 70% of snowbirds drive to their destination, “so that means if they want to continue to drive to their destination, the U.S. is their only option.”
Additionally, 30% of snowbirds own property in the U.S. – “so obviously if they own property, they are more likely to go there than let it sit empty for the winter.
“And many snowbirds have communities and friends that they go down to see in the winter” – meaning, “It’s about lifestyle more so than just a vacation or quick getaway.”
The bottom line, Fine believes, is that, despite all the all rhetoric emanating from both sides of the border, “There is definitely a large contingency that is going to go back to the U.S. this year.”
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