Pacific-Asian inbound travel is poised to exceed pre-pandemic levels starting this year, and reach 761.2 million visitors by 2028, according to the latest forecast from the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA).
However, in light of evolving geopolitical developments and macroeconomic volatility, the outlook also considers a lower bound the forecast scenario, where international visitor arrivals could reach 599.7 million by 2028, representing approximately an 88% recovery compared to 2019 levels.
“International tourism is entering a more complex phase where growth continues, but under increasing pressure,” said PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid. “At PATA, we recognize both sides of the equation – the positive momentum driven by strong regional demand, and the downside risks arising from geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, and climate-related disruptions.
“In this environment, growth is no longer linear or guaranteed. Destinations and organisations must be prepared for multiple scenarios, with the ability to adapt quickly, recalibrate strategies, and respond with agility. Decision-making must be grounded in real-time data and a clear understanding of risk.
“Ultimately, resilience and preparedness will define how well the industry navigates this next phase of uncertainty.”
Drawing on current data and scenario-based modelling, the study outlines a period of structurally constrained and uneven growth shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, climate-related disruptions, evolving aviation and visa policies, and rapid digital and AI-driven transformation across the tourism economy.
If you enjoyed or found this story useful, we’d appreciate if you would forward it to a colleague or friend who may also enjoy it. If, on the other hand, a friend shared it with you, welcome! You can get all the latest travel news and reviews from Travel Industry by simply clicking HERE.