International tourism is expected to recover completely in 2024 backed by strong demand, enhanced air connectivity, and the continued recovery of China and other major Asian markets, according to UN Tourism, which reports that international tourist arrivals reached 97% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of the year.

The agency says more than 285 million tourists travelled internationally in January-March, about 20% more than the first quarter of 2023, underscoring the sector’s near-complete recovery from the impacts of the pandemic.

In 2023 international tourist arrivals recovered 89% of 2019 levels and export revenues from tourism 96%, while direct tourism GDP reached the same levels as in 2019.

UN Tourism’s projection for 2024 points to a full recovery of international tourism with arrivals growing 2% above 2019 levels. In line with this, the newest data released by the UN specialized agency for tourism show that:

• Despite the war in Israel-Palestine, the Middle East saw the strongest relative growth, with international arrivals exceeding by 36% pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2024, or 4% above Q1 2023. This follows an extraordinary performance in 2023, when the Middle East became the first world region to recover pre-pandemic numbers (+22%).
• The Americas practically recovered pre-pandemic numbers this first quarter, with arrivals reaching 99% of 2019 levels.
• International tourism is also experiencing a rapid recovery in Asia and the Pacific where arrivals reached 82% of pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2024, after recovering 65% in the year 2023.

UN Tourism Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The recovery of the sector is very welcome news for our economies and the livelihoods of millions. Yet it also recalls the need to ensure adequate tourism policies and destination management, aiming to advance sustainability and inclusion, while addressing the externalities and impact of the sector on resources and communities”.

According to available data, many destinations across the world continued to achieve strong results in Q1 2024, including Qatar (+177% versus Q1 2019), Albania (+121%), Saudi Arabia (+98%), El Salvador (+90%), Tanzania (+53%), Curaçao (+45%), Serbia (+43%), Turks and Caicos (+42%), Guatemala (+41%) and Bulgaria (+38%).

Confidence

The robust performance of international tourism can also be seen in the latest UN Tourism Confidence Index, which reached 130 points (on a scale of 0 to 200) for the period January-April, above the expectations (122) expressed for this period in mid-January.

The Index shows positive prospects for the upcoming summer season, with some 62% of tourism experts participating in the survey expressing better (53%) or much better (9%) expectations for this four-month period, covering the Northern Hemisphere summer season, while 31% foresee similar performance as in 2023.

Challenges remain

According to the UN Tourism Panel of Experts, economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to international tourism and confidence levels.

IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (April 2024) points to a steady but slow economic recovery, though mixed by region. At the same time, persisting inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade continue to translate into high transport and accommodations costs.

Tourists are expected to continue to seek value for money and travel closer to home in response to elevated prices and the overall economic challenges, while extreme temperatures and other weather events could impact the destination choice of many travellers. This is increasingly mentioned by the UN Tourism Panel of Experts as a concern for the sector.

Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the Hamas-Israel conflict and other mounting geopolitical tensions, are also important downside risks for international tourism.