Say goodbye to contrails, the symbolic, sometimes beautiful, markers of travel dreams. American Airlines and Google say they have significantly reduced the climate impact of some of the airline’s flights using an AI-based forecasting tool to help prevent the iconic condensation trails.
When airplanes fly through cold and humid areas, ice crystals can form around the soot particles emitted from the engine, creating clouds that trap heat and warm the planet. Google is using artificial intelligence to predict where these condensation trails, or contrails, are likely to form if planes pass through. American Airlines added the forecasts to its flight planning system on a trial basis to show where pilots could safely shift altitude or use optional routes to avoid those areas.
The companies say the tool could be one of the most cost-effective, scalable climate solutions available in aviation now.
The aviation industry is under growing pressure to take action on climate change. And while those thin, white lines that form behind airplanes may look wispy, they’re responsible for a surprising amount of Earth’s warming – 1% to 2%, according to Contrails.org, a nonprofit research organization dedicated to reducing aviation’s climate impact through contrail management, as part of the Breakthrough Energy group founded by Bill Gates. The group was among the collaborators in the trial.
Switching to cleaner fuels, such as sustainable aviation fuel, can significantly reduce emissions and contrails, though that’s far more expensive than slightly altering a flight route.
Many contrails are short-lived, but some may persist for hours or even days if it’s extremely humid. Research on the subject suggested that minor adjustments to flight altitudes or routes to avoid these regions could eliminate a significant portion of this warming using a minimal amount of additional fuel – a theory tested through this trial.
Testing on flights from the U.S. to Europe
The trial involved 2,400 flights from the U.S. to Europe. In research recently shared in a blog post, Google said half were given a route option to avoid creating contrails and the other half were the control group.
For the 112 flights that flew that option, they formed 62% fewer contrails compared to the control group, the paper said. The researchers estimated that reduced the climatological warming from those flights by about 69%.
Flightkeys, the flight planning service used by American Airlines, joined the airline, Google and Contrails.org in the collaborative work.
“We know that aviation is one of the hardest, most difficult sectors to decarbonize,” Dinesh Sanekommu, who leads Google’s work on contrails, said in an interview. “We think there’s a way that AI can help make that a reality. And the hope is… they all add a little bit of evidence and generate a bit of data that helps make the right decisions in the long run.”
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