There’s always an asterisk when tourism recovery numbers are assessed: it doesn’t include China and its massive middle class, which hasn’t yet fully returned to pre-pandemic travel levels. But that’s about to change, not just in the present, but over the next decade, during which the country is poised to become world’s most dominant tourism market.

Indeed, new research released at the recent World Travel Market in London says that while Chinese tourism has yet to recover from the pandemic, growth will return and by 2033 Chinese outbound by value could be “double the size” of the United States.

The WTM Global Travel Report, in association with Tourism Economics, anticipates that the growth in the value of outbound travel from China between 2024 and 2033 will be 131% – by far the largest increase for any major market.

“There is potential for China to become double the size of the United States as a source market in terms of spending,” the report claims.

The number of Chinese households earning enough to be able to afford to travel will “roughly double” by 2033, with an additional 60 million-plus households in the market.

Elsewhere, Indonesia and India will also see significantly more households able to afford to travel over the next decade, says the report.

For 2023, Asia-Pacific (APAC) tourism is still lagging behind 2019 levels. Overall, the region will welcome 149 million arrivals this year, 30% fewer than 2019 levels volumes. In terms of value, the region as a whole will end the year at only 68% of 2019’s return.

By country, China’s inbound leisure is only 60% recovered by value, with other big markets also behind – Thailand and Japan are at 57% of 2019. India is the region’s strongest performer and is only 6% shy of matching 2019.

Domestic tourism is proving more resilient. China and Japan, again, are the only countries in the region’s top 10 underperforming 2019 levels, but the gap is closer, with China at 93% and Japan at 82%. Australia tops the regional charts for domestic with 2023’s value coming in a 124% of 2019.

APAC’s tourism market will continue to improve into 2024, although the picture is mixed. China will end the year slightly ahead in value, as will India and Australia. Thailand and Japan will still not have got back to 2019 levels.

In contrast, domestic travel in 2024 will be stronger than 2019 for almost all countries in the region. Many travellers “substituted” domestic trips for international ones during the pandemic and this trend is now established, despite the lifting of restrictions. Japan is the only exception, “reflective of the historical downward trend in domestic leisure and domestic travel demand more generally within Japan”.

Juliette Losardo, Exhibition Director, World Travel Market London, said: “APAC is a critical driver of the world’s inbound, outbound, and domestic tourism sectors, and the growth profile for China and other countries in the region is extremely positive news for us all.”