By Michael Baginski/ Given the “current environment,” it’s not surprising that Canadian travel to the U.S. is suffering a “serious decline,” says an executive for Brand USA, who nevertheless suggests that things could be worse, even if Mexico has recently surpassed Canada as the U.S.’s top international source market for visitors.
Brand USA VP Jackie Ennis said the flip has happened in the past few months – at a time when Canadians were justifiably looking inward for their travels.
While forecasting an overall 20% overall decline in visitations from Canada this year, the U.S. had been tracking slightly lower at about 17% – at least until the summer months when it ticked up to 20-21%, Ennis said.
Speaking during an Oct. 15 online panel discussion conducted by the Discover America Canada Committee (which is comprised of vested travel organizations committed to promoting travel to the U.S.), Ennis said, “July and August are fantastic months to be in Canada. We know that there’s been a real push for Canadians to travel within their own country and it’s beautiful country – so why wouldn’t they in (the summer), which is a great time to do that?”
But she added that hopes are that the lower percentage range at least will return in the fall and into December when Canadian weather starts to turn.
The VP for Brand USA, which is responsible for U.S. travel marketing outside the country, concurred with fellow panelist Jennifer Hendry of the Conference Board of Canada that stats from both sides of the border are generally in synch (including a general drop of Canadians visitations by about 750,000 to date in 2025).
However, she said that U.S. numbers show flights only down about 14% compared to 20% in Canadian counting, though like due to variations in how air travellers are counted. Comparably, StatsCan pegged land border crossings as down about 32%.
One source of optimism, Ennis said, is that air service to the U.S. has remained “fairly positive.”
Air Canada panellist Viktor Spysak noted that while capacity from Canadian airlines (in general) has been reduced (with smaller aircraft, for example), the range of flights and destinations has remained stable.
He added that Air Canada is already looking to expand capacity in the U.S. next year, including introducing new destinations.
“We do see positive trends on leisure markets,” Spysak continued. “On our end we are cautiously restarting some of the marketing activities, which is also a great sign, so we are trying to organically deliver a message that U.S. destinations have a lot to offer, so we are there.”
Hendry, meanwhile, emphatically observed that “Canada is still a very large market for the U.S., and it is still the largest outbound volume for Canada… American flights are there, they’re just not being promoted due to fears of backlash (from customers).”
Softening demand
Expedia Group’s Raina Williams said the company has definitely witnessed a softening of demand for the U.S., but is still seeing the likes of Las Vegas, Orlando, Los Angeles, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami still ranking among its top booked destinations in the U.S. She also noted that while the number of trips may be down, length of stay is up (a trend that translates to other destinations as well).
Stephen Fine, founder of Snowbird Advisor and Snowbird Advisor Insurance, reported his organization is also seeing varied international interest amongst mature Canadians for their winter travel (such as Spain, Portugal and Costa Rica), but that traditional U.S. hotspots are clearly still popular. He noted that that many Canadian snowbirds have ties (including home ownership) in the U.S. that may supersede politics, resulting in a significant winter migration to states like Florida, Arizona and Texas again this year.
Nevertheless, Ennis acknowledged that Mexico has surpassed Canada for now as the US’s top international market – mainly due to the Canadian decline, not a Mexican surge.
“But Canada is a vitally important market to the U.S.,” she maintained, “and notwithstanding the 20% decline on 2025 figures (not rising further) as hopefully anticipated, that is still 16 million people and that’s a lot of people that are still travelling to the United States.”
Indeed, agreed panel moderator Colin Wood, who stated, “Some of our destinations can get a little squirrelly with the apocalyptic headlines that they see and read. But the numbers, even with the reductions, are still incredibly high; they’re still significant.”
Ennis also offered that “one of the tour operators I’ve been connecting with said Alaska is still doing really well for Canadians, which is so funny. It’s like sometimes Hawaii and Alaska are almost destinations until to themselves, where they don’t potentially have that association with the U.S. in a weird way.”
But no matter where Canadians who are still travelling to the States are going, Ennis believes that they feel very much welcomed.
“I know there is a serious number of states that are providing specific campaigns to welcome Canadian travellers to their state, trying to place people above politics. And I think Canadians are really appreciating that. It definitely has been received very positively,” she said.
(Ed. note: see following story on Travel South Canadian campaign).
Changing sentiment
At the same time, Ennis said Brand USA monitors travel sentiment in over 20 markets each month and that Canadians’ negative feelings seemed to have bottomed out around April/May – “and since that time the sentiment has stabilized, and we’ve actually gained three points. So, we feel like maybe the worst is past?
“What we’re hoping for is that everyone, I hate to say it, has got a little bit used to the sense of chaos (that is now a constant in the U.S.) and then its almost like, ‘Ok, I want to go to Nashville, or I want to go that sports game. Whatever, I’m gonna go!
“Hopefully there are no more provocations or antagonisms over the next six to 12 months – but I can’t guarantee that, unfortunately,” she laughed. “But fingers crossed. I want Canada to regain that No. 1 international spot for inbound into the United States. I’m sure it will.”
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