Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea on Thursday, potentially widening the Iran war as international oil topped $100 a barrel.
The Houthis have threatened to shut down another key trade route, with the world economy already reeling from Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and the U.S. have meanwhile stepped up their attacks as they vie for control of the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas transited in peacetime, setting off a scramble for alternative routes.
As the U.S. carried out a 12th night of strikes across Iran, President Donald Trump threatened “major military punishment” against the Houthis if their attacks on ships continue.
The Houthi rebels’ threat to blockade Saudi Arabia has the potential to widen the Iran war and further disrupt global oil supplies and international trade. The Iran-backed rebels say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi-linked shipping in retaliation for the kingdom’s blockade on Yemen and a recent attack on the international airport in Yemen’s rebel-held capital, Sanaa.
Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a vital shipping chokepoint, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Around 12% of the world’s trade, including a fourth of global container traffic, passes through the narrows.
The strait has become even more vital for Saudi oil exports since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has severely limited shipping out of the Persian Gulf.
The Houthis had said they would only stop vessels connected to Saudi Arabia or going in and out of its Red Sea ports. But during a similar blockade announced against Israel over the war in Gaza, the rebels attacked many vessels with little or no connection to that conflict.
The threat alone could keep international shippers from using the route.
Global trade could be disrupted at a second chokepoint
“If Bab el-Mandeb comes under pressure at the same time as shipping in the Gulf, you have disruption around two of the world’s most important maritime routes at once,” Clionadh Raleigh, the founder of ACLED, a conflict monitoring service, said.
More than 7 million barrels of petroleum a day transited Bab el-Mandeb in June, compared to around 4 million before the Iran war, Allison Minor, the director of the Atlantic Council’s Project for Middle East Integration, wrote in an analysis published this week.
Saudi Arabia has been recently exporting some 4 million barrels of oil a day through its Red Sea port of Yanbu, blunting the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which has still rattled economies around the world.
Saudi Arabia could still get crude to market without using Bab el-Mandeb, by shipping up to 2.5 million barrels a day across the Red Sea to Egypt, whose SUMED pipeline can carry it to the Mediterranean. It could also ship 1 million barrels a day through the Suez Canal.
International shippers could also reroute around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, as they did at the height of the war in Gaza. But that means adding one or two weeks to voyages – and raising costs.
The Houthis attacked over 100 vessels at the height of the war in Gaza, before a punishing U.S. and Israeli air campaign put an end to the attacks in early 2025.
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