Despite disruption caused by the crisis in the Middle East, International tourist arrivals grew 2% over the first quarter of 2026, according to the United Nations.
UN Tourism, some 307 million tourists travelled internationally in the first quarter of 2026, about 6 million more than the same period of 2025. While the start of the year saw sustained travel demand overall (+2.5% cumulative growth in January and February), the Middle East conflict impacted performance in March (+0.4%).
The conflict is expected to reduce growth in international arrivals by 1 to 2 percentage points below UN Tourism’s initial forecast of 3% to 4% for 2026, depending on the conflict’s duration and scope.
Aside from disruptions in flights to, from and within the Middle East and effects on traveller confidence, the spike in oil prices and jet fuel shortage in some markets is increasing air fares and reducing flight capacity also in other regions. More expensive travel coupled with uncertainty about air connectivity, could redirect demand towards closer tourism destinations while also affecting overall travel demand.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said: “The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation. This is placing pressure on travellers, businesses and destinations alike.
“(But) even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million people travelling internationally, a 2% increase on last year. At a time of growing geopolitical and economic pressure, this reinforces tourism’s wider role in supporting economies, creating opportunity and sustaining communities far beyond the sector itself.”
Among destinations reporting growth in arrivals for the first three months of 2026, the best performers include: Paraguay (+46%), New Zealand (+45%), El Salvador (+43%), Mongolia (+39%), Palau (+37%) and Uzbekistan (+37%).
Europe, the world’s largest travel destination region, saw over 130 million international tourists in Q1 2026, a 4% increase, building on the strong momentum of 2025 (+5%). Some destinations benefited from the redirection of tourism flows. Southern Mediterranean Europe and Northern Europe both saw a 4% increase in arrivals in Q1 2026, while Central Eastern Europe (+6%) continued its recovery.
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