By MICHAEL BAGINSKI/ Canadian visitations to the U.S. have bottomed out and are set to rise for the next five years, according to the latest U.S. Travel Forecast. Newly released by the U.S. Travel Association, the report says the turnaround has already started (2026), but it won’t be until 2030 until visitations surpass the heady pre-pandemic numbers of 2019 when 20.7 million Canadians crossed border.
Released ahead of U.S. Travel’s signature annual IPW event taking place in Fort Lauderdale next week, the report says overall international inbound travel to the U.S., which declined in 2025, is expected to resume growth in 2026.
Visitor spending from international travellers is projected to rise 1.6% to US$178 billion, and international visitation is forecast to increase 3.4% to 70.6 million, though full recovery to 2019 levels is not expected until 2029.
As for the Canadian market, which has slipped to No. 2 status for the U.S. as a result of a potent cocktail of tariffs, insults and border issues from the second Trump administration, numbers are expected to reach 17 million visitors in 2026 after 2025’s low point (excluding pandemic years) of 16 million.
And those figures will continue to steadily rise over the next several years: 18.2 million in 2027, 19.1 in 2028, 20.1 million in 2029, and 21.0 million 2030, finally surpassing 2019.
And it’s 2028 when Canada regains co-No. 1 status with Mexico before rising about the U.S.’s southern neighbour again in 2030.
The forecast, powered by modeling from Tourism Economics, also projects steady, domestic-led growth for the travel industry in 2026 and beyond, with domestic travel remaining the backbone of the industry, accounting for 87% of all travel spending.
Domestic leisure is the only major travel segment to exceed pre-pandemic spending in real terms, with spending projected at $909 billion in 2026.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted across U.S. cities, represents a key opportunity to accelerate that recovery. At the same time, inbound travel’s slow rebound is widening the U.S. travel trade deficit, which reached $72 billion in 2025 as outbound travel outpaces international visitation.
Business travel spending is forecast to grow modestly, rising 0.8% to $319 billion in 2026, as companies hold travel budgets steady while continuing to prioritize in-person meetings and events.
The forecast also flags downside risks: persistent inflation and energy prices, geopolitical conflict, softening consumer confidence and barriers facing international visitors, including long visa wait times and global perceptions of the United States.
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