In the survey of 112 travel companies worldwide conducted by Responsible Travel, almost 80% (79.5%) of respondents reported a drop in holiday enquiries since the start of the Iran war, with 56% reporting ‘no sign’ of improvement.
Almost 60% (59.3%) of holiday companies offering tours globally have reported a drop of ‘20% or more’ in enquiries since the start of the Iran war, the new poll suggests.
Not surprisingly, 100% companies whose tours are based in the Middle East reported a drop in enquiries of 20% or more. The same was true of 68% of those with Asia tours, and 52% of those whose tours are in Europe.
Some companies reported no bookings since the outbreak of the war, with severe cancellation levels of up to 90%.
‘Flexible incentives’
Some respondents reported fearing long-term impacts from instability and rising costs resulting from the war. Others were more hopeful of seeing interest pick up “within weeks,” while some operators in regions not directly impacted by the war foresaw increased trading.
Some respondents credited flexible cancellation or postponement policies in helping to reassure travellers and boost confidence.
“The human costs of war are incalculable, and the announcement of a ceasefire is extremely welcome,” said Responsible Travel customer director Tim Williamson. “From an industry perspective, the drop in tourist numbers – as well as rising costs associated with a prolonged conflict – hits small businesses and communities dependent on tourism the hardest.
“We’ve heard first-hand from many of our members worldwide of the significant impacts already felt and concern for livelihoods. It’s imperative that this ceasefire becomes permanent and stability resumes.”
UK-based Responsible Travel was founded in 2000 and claims to be the world’s first and largest responsible tourism business, working with over 450 travel company partners worldwide and offering over 6,000 trips online.
Optimism?
On Wednesday, a day after some agents at a Virtuoso symposium in Toronto cited the price of airfares as being a significant obstacle to client bookings, stock markets surged and oil prices dropped by over 15% based on the ceasefire news.
However, market analysts described the agreement between the U.S. and Iran as more of a reprieve than a resolution, and indeed Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again just hours after the deal was announced in retaliation to an Israeli attack on Lebanon, though it was not clear if the actions would scuttle the ceasefire.
“The mood remains one of cautious optimism rather than outright celebration,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. “The ceasefire is only two weeks long, and markets will be watching closely to see whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes as promised and whether the fragile truce can pave the way for a more durable peace agreement.”
“There is a reason to be optimistic, but it is still too early to tell,” added Takashi Hiroki, chief strategist at MONEX, “because, as you know, after all, it is Trump,”
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