While global hotel rates are expected to remain relatively stable through 2026, with geopolitical instability and uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariffs limiting demand and restricting sharp increases, rates in Canada are expected to soar, according to American Express Global Business Travel’s (Amex GBT) Hotel Monitor 2026.
The annual forecast is based on Amex GBT data combined with inflation and GDP projections from the International Monetary Fund. It provides an outlook for key business travel destinations worldwide.
North America
The report highlights tariff uncertainty as a potential factor for hotel pricing in the region: “Uncertainty over U.S. tariffs could have a variable impact on hotel rates in North America in the year ahead. In the U.S., we expect price rises to be moderate, tempered by a projected downturn in inbound demand.”
Within this context, Canada stands out. “Canada could see larger price increases than its southern neighbours; even with a growing supply of hotel rooms, our modelling indicates that rates for Toronto could rise by as much as +5.8%,” the report states. That compares with increases of +4% in New York, +3% in Miami and Las Vegas, and +2% in Mexico City.
In additional Canadian data provided by Amex GBT, Vancouver is forecast for an even steeper increase of +6.2%, while Montreal is projected to rise by +1.8%.
Global variations
Other regions are projected to see more moderate changes. In Europe, London is forecast at +4.2% and Paris at +2.4%, while Madrid is projected at +4.8%. London’s pipeline of 80 hotel projects, adding nearly 15,000 rooms, is expected to temper stronger increases.
In Asia, Hong Kong is forecast to decline by –1.2%, while Beijing is expected to rise +1.5%. India remains a growth leader, with Bengaluru, dubbed the Silicon Valley of India, projected at +6.4% following strong performance in 2025.
In Latin America, Buenos Aires is forecast to increase by +5.6% and Rio De Janeiro by +5%. In the Middle East, Riyadh is projected at +2.3% and Dubai at +2%, with development pipelines keeping growth moderate.
Market outlook
“This year’s forecast reveals a nuanced global environment where geopolitical uncertainties are tempering hotel rate increases,” said Dan Beauchamp, VP for Consulting, Amex GBT. “These insights allow businesses to make more informed travel decisions in an increasingly complex landscape.”
High-end properties are expected to record the strongest increases. “Luxury could buck the stability trend, as affluent leisure travellers continue to spend, pushing up rates for top-tier accommodation,” said Sara Andell, Director of Consulting Strategy at Amex GBT, in a letter introducing the report. “Corporates who put their travellers in luxury and upper-upscale hotels could be paying more for the privilege.”
Implications for buyers
For travel buyers and corporate planners, the forecast points to continued caution. While most markets will see modest changes, high-demand cities and luxury categories are expected to remain under upward pressure, requiring close monitoring of local conditions and proactive negotiations.
See the full report HERE.
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