After entertaining new entrants for several years, Canada’s airline market is once again on the path to consolidation, raising the likelihood of higher fares and fewer flight options. Since May, newer low-cost carriers Swoop and Lynx Air have disappeared from the skies and WestJet has scooped up Sunwing Airlines.

The latter two made up 37% of seat capacity on direct flights to sun destinations and 72% from Western Canada last year, according to an October report from the Competition Bureau. It said eliminating the rivalry between WestJet and Sunwing would likely suppress competition around the sale of vacation packages.

“We’ve lost 40% of the players in the space of the last 12 months,” said John Gradek, a lecturer at McGill University’s aviation management program. “The question is, are we done?”

The shrinking airline tally could mean less service and higher prices, particularly in the West and smaller markets across the country.

“The fewer competitive entities you have in Canada, the less pressure you have to be price competitive,” Gradek said.

Air Canada and WestJet have strengthened their grip on the domestic market over the past year, even as rival Porter Airlines rapidly expands in a bid to become the country’s third major airline.

Canada’s two largest carriers command 79% of domestic traffic as of this month versus 74% a year earlier, statistics from aviation data firm Cirium show.

The diminishing set of operators coincides with a nearly 7% decrease in domestic flight volume between March 2023 and this month, though that may be due in part to a renewed focus on international trips.

While big cities remain amply served, smaller ones have fewer options, which can also result in higher prices and, when things go awry, stranded passengers.

The Calgary-Saskatoon route saw flight numbers fall 41% to 454 this month from 776 in March 2019, now that the airspace between Alberta and Saskatchewan’s two biggest cities is served with non-stop flights by WestJet only – Air Canada pulled out over a year ago.

Flights between Toronto and Saint John, N.B., number 124 this month versus 186 five years ago, with Air Canada the only carrier to serve the route after ultra-low-cost Flair Airlines left last year.

Ironically, the COVID-19 pandemic that hammered the travel industry opened the gate to new entrants. And now that business is booming again, ownership is concentrating.

“In recessionary periods, there’s a lot of airplanes suddenly on the market at a low cost,” said Barry Prentice, director of the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

The glut of jetliners abruptly available for lease combined with the 20-month grounding of the Boeing 737 Max 8 due to two fatal crashes made those aircraft particularly cheap. “So that’s what Flair picked up, and Lynx and others,” Prentice said.

“People are free to get in – that’s what free enterprise is. And they’re free to go broke.”

Calgary-based Lynx, which shut down last month after filing for creditor protection, marks at least the eighth budget airline to take off and then fizzle out since 2000, joining the ranks of Roots Air, CanJet and Swoop.

Last fall, Calgary-based WestJet folded its Swoop subsidiary under its main banner. It also aims to wind down Sunwing and integrate the discount carrier into its mainline business by October after buying the Toronto-based company last May.

High airport rents, security fees and fuel taxes raise the baseline cost of flying, making it harder for budget airlines to coax budget-conscious Canadians on board.

Pearson’s “airport improvement fee” on a no-frills, one-way Flair flight booked this week between Toronto and Fort Lauderdale, Fla., for April amounts to $35, or one-third of the $107 ticket (most US airports charge US$4.50). A security charge tacks on another $12. For a family of four, that adds nearly $200 to the journey.

“That makes a difference between travelling and not travelling,” said Flair CEO Stephen Jones. “It’s a big deal.”

The market’s decades-long domination by Air Canada and WestJet can also stifle competition, he said.

“There is no interest by the big carriers in having low-cost carriers succeed, and they’ll use the tools that they’ve got in the toolkit to try and bring carriers like Lynx to an end,” Jones claimed.

In late 2018, the Competition Bureau opened an investigation into predatory pricing tactics allegedly deployed by WestJet and its then subsidiary Swoop on some routes flown by Flair, which had launched the previous year.

The regulator wound down its probe nearly five years later without taking further steps. The decision came despite then interim competition commissioner Matthew Boswell accusing WestJet and Swoop in 2018 of “engaging in … predatory pricing by significantly decreasing the prices of their passenger tickets to a level that appears to be below their avoidable costs.”

“I am unable to comment on any findings,” said spokesman Jayme Albert, noting that federal law requires the agency to work confidentially. “That said, we take action whenever we find evidence of conduct that is prohibited by the Competition Act.”

Lynx, which launched its first flight in April 2022 and halted operations on Feb. 26, said in court filings that rising costs, airports charges, and “a competitive aviation landscape have proved disastrous.”

ON THE OTHER HAND

While inflation has hit most of the economy, that’s hardly the case with airfare. Not only are airfares down 6% year-over-year based on January 2024 prices, but they’re even down 15% versus a decade ago. And some experts are predicting airfares to international destinations will drop even lower in 2024.

According to the American Express Global Business Travel Air Monitor 2024 report, prices on certain international routes may drop as much as 12%.

Here’s how AmEx GBT anticipates average economy airfares will change in 2024 versus 2023, for a sampling of regions:

• North America to Europe: Drop by 3.5%.
• Europe to North America: Drop by 1.2%.
• North America to Central America: Drop by 7.8%.
• North America to Asia: Drop by 7.5%.
• Asia to North America: Drop by 5.2%.
• South America to North America: Drop by 11.9%.

So, why have airfares been dropping?

Existing airlines are offering more flights and routes

2023 was a huge year for travel, with several records broken. For travel from North America to Asia, there are 5.5 million more airline seats for sale in the first half of 2024 versus the same period in 2023. That’s a 35% year-over-year increase, says Jeremy Quek, principal global air practice line lead at AmEx GBT.

“More availability in turn can help with pricing,” Nastro says. “Heading into 2024, in theory, this should reduce overall prices.”

Budget airlines are bringing down prices

New, smaller airlines (particularly low-cost carriers) are also competing for customers, which helps bring down airfares industrywide.

A return to normalcy after COVID-19

Quek says much of the phenomenon of falling airfares is a post-COVID-19 pandemic recalibration, considering so many airlines reduced schedules in 2020.

“Airline schedules, especially on long-haul international flights, are set at least six months out,” Quek says. “Restarting a route can take even longer. As countries announced border reopenings, airlines were constrained on how quickly they could reintroduce flights.”

Airfares originating in the North America hit all-time highs in May 2022 when the summer of “revenge travel” was in full swing. Quek says this year’s price decreases are largely a return to pre-pandemic equilibrium rather than an extraordinary drop in prices.

Don’t wait to book

Though airfares are falling, don’t delay booking in hopes that they’ll fall further. Going advises booking two to eight months out for international travel.

“Airfares tend to increase the closer you get to booking,” Nastro says. “In reality, it is far more likely for airlines to sell tickets at higher prices at the last minute.”