With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine passing the one-year mark on Feb. 24, a prominent tourism analytics firm has assessed the war’s impact on travel over the past 12 months, revealing a number of trends – some surprising, some not.

Key findings from the report include:

• Turkey and the Middle East have benefitted most in tourism terms
• Rich Russians holidayed while the rest remained at home
• Europe-Asia Pacific flights take longer and cost more

Based on flight booking data compiled by British-based ForwardKeys, the report also states that – predictably – sanctions and the ban on direct flights between Russia and most of the EU has dramatically reduced Russia’s air connectivity with the rest of the world.

That includes a reduction of seat capacity of 92% between North America and Russia and 99% from the UK and the European Union. Further, 87% less to Asia Pacific, 76% less to Africa and the rest of the Americas, and 20% less to the rest of Europe.

Surprising trend

ForwardKeys VP Insights Olivier Ponti says that perhaps the most surprising trend to emerge during the first 10 months of the war was wealthy Russians “returning to international travel with a vengeance” post pandemic, whereas ordinary Russians stayed at home.

Data states that from the start of the war on Feb. 24, 2022, until the end of December, premium class tickets for Russian outbound travel boomed, up by 10% on pre-pandemic levels. By comparison, economy class travel was down by 70%.

The destination that was most successful in attracting affluent Russians was the UAE, to where premium class travel was up by 108% on 2019. It was followed by the UAE, up Thailand 81%; Turkey, up 41%; the Maldives, up 137%; and Egypt, up 181%.

Looking at all travel, i.e.: premium plus economy, the picture is different. The most popular route for Russians during the past year has been to and from Antalya, the Turkish riviera resort.

However, so far in 2023, the situation has changed in Russia, the report observes, with international travel collapsing in the first quarter of the year. As of Feb. 15, premium class flight bookings for Q1 are currently 26% behind 2019 levels and economy 66% behind.

Impact on Europe

Meanwhile, a further notable impact of the war in Ukraine, and the resulting closure of Russian air space to many airlines, has been the increase in costs and flight times between Europe and Asia Pacific, according to the report. Those costs have been passed on in the form of higher air fares, which have also been influenced by the late reopening of Asian destinations.

In the year following the start of the war, average air fares between Europe and Asia-Pacific were 20% higher than before the pandemic in 2019 and 53% higher than last year. On flight times, 37% of air traffic between the two continents now takes more than eight hours, up from 23% before the invasion. Routes that have been worst affected include those between Japan and South Korea in Asia-Pacific and France, Germany, Scandinavia & the UK in Europe.

“The greatest impact on air travel to and from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine last February has been war-related sanctions, which have particularly benefitted Turkey and the Middle East, as they have maintained direct flights to and from Russia,” says Ponti.

He adds, “We expect Chinese airlines will be another winner as they are still flying through Russian air space, and that gives them a competitive advantage in flight times and fuel costs on routes between Europe and Asia Pacific.

“However,” he concludes, “the most eye-opening feature is the premium class boom, which appears to illustrate a division in Russian society between the rich, who holidayed in style, while the less affluent stayed at home.”